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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
EUR/USD quickly movements above the 1.1100 marks.
German Economic Sentiment improves to 26.7 in January.
Attention now shifts to Trump’s speech in Davos.
A surprising boost of purchasing interest-driven EUR/USD returned above the key 1.1100 marks on Tuesday soon after the discharge of better-than-estimated ZEW Survey figures.
EUR/USD stays near 1.1100, attention on Trump
The pair has regained greater oxygen and advanced – albeit briefly – to the location above 1.1100 the determine after the ZEW Survey confirmed the Economic Sentiment rebounded to 26.7 and 25.6 in Germany and the euro area, respectively, for the current month.
Moving forward, buyers are now targeted on the imminent speech with the aid of President Trump at the WEF in Davos, amidst growing concerns regarding the outbreak of the Wuhan coronavirus in China.
What to look for around EUR
The pair dropped to sparkling every year lows and lingers over the important thing 55-day SMA to date this week and always trying to USD-dynamics. Furthermore, the recent charge action suggests that the 1.1180 regions may be a meantime top. In the meantime, markets’ awareness is now seen moving to a more data-structured stance whilst the US-China change front remains muted for the time being. On the greater macro view, the slowdown within the location stays aways from abated and keeps to justify the ‘looser for longer’ monetary stance from the ECB, which is anticipated to keep the current ‘wait-and-see’ stance, at least within the near-term, as in step with the recently published minutes (Accounts) from the December meeting.
EUR/USD degrees to watch
At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.05% at 1.1100 and faces the subsequent up barrier at 1.1134 (200-day SMA) followed by 1.1172 (weekly excessive Jan.16) and eventually 1.1186 (61.8% of the 2017-2018 rally). On the downside, a breakdown of 1.1076 (weekly/2020 low Jan.20) would goal 1.1066 (100-day SMA) en direction to 1.1039 (low Dec.6 2019).
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Moving averages Conclusions and forex trading signals
The advantages of using moving averages need to be weighed against the disadvantages. Moving averages are trend following, or lagging, indicators that will always be a step behind. This is not necessarily a bad thing though. After all, the trend is your friend and it is best to trade in the direction of the trend. Moving averages ensure that a trader is in line with the current trend. Even though the trend is your friend, securities spend a great deal of time in trading ranges, which render moving averages ineffective. Once in a trend, moving averages will keep you in, but also give late forex trading signals . Don't expect to sell at the top and buy at the bottom using moving averages forex trading signals . As with most technical analysis tools, moving averages should not be used on their own, but in conjunction with other complementary tools. Chartists can use moving averages to define the overall trend and then use RSI to define overbought or oversold levels.
Gold trading signals , Elliott Wave Patterns and Sells from 1325
The price of gold continued to rise during the past weeks and reached 1326
The price of gold during this rally formed the fifth wave or the basic pattern of the Elliott waves
The third wave within this model is extended and the fifth wave is equal to the length of the first wave
Which gives an opportunity to sell gold today so we offer gold trading signals for the sale of gold free
GOLD
It is preferable to sell gold from the level of 1325 targeting the 1311 level of profit and the level of 1332 to stop loss
Gold Analysis and Gold Price Outlook and free gold trading signals today
The end of the basic Elliott wave pattern is an opportunity to sell and the emergence of the Bearish Bearish candlestick is an entry point for selling
The current bullish wave, which started from 1160 to 1326, is equal to a previous bullish wave and according to the theory of equal waves
We are expected to see a bearish wave of gold
Bollinger Bands guidelines
forex signals : W-Bottoms
W-Bottoms were part of Arthur Merrill's work that identified 16 patterns with a basic W shape. Bollinger uses these various W patterns with Bollinger Bands to identify W-Bottoms. A “W-Bottom” forms in a downtrend and involves two reaction lows. In particular, Bollinger looks for W-Bottoms where the second low is lower than the first but holds above the lower band. There are four steps to confirm a W-Bottom with Bollinger Bands. First, a reaction low forms. This low is usually, but not always, below the lower band. Second, there is a bounce towards the middle band. Third, there is a new price low in the security. This low holds above the lower band. The ability to hold above the lower band on the test shows less weakness on the last decline. Fourth, the pattern is confirmed with a strong move off the second low and a resistance break.
forex signals : M-Tops
M-Tops were also part of Arthur Merrill's work that identified 16 patterns with a basic M shape. Bollinger uses these various M patterns with Bollinger Bands to identify M-Tops. According to Bollinger, tops are usually more complicated and drawn out than bottoms. Double tops, head-and-shoulders patterns, and diamonds represent evolving tops.
In its most basic form, an M-Top is similar to a double top. However, the reaction highs are not always equal. The first high can be higher or lower than the second high. Bollinger suggests looking for signs of non-confirmation when a security is making new highs. This is basically the opposite of the W-Bottom. A non-confirmation occurs with three steps. First, a security creates a reaction high above the upper band. Second, there is a pullback towards the middle band. Third, prices move above the prior high but fail to reach the upper band. This is a warning sign. The inability of the second reaction high to reach the upper band shows waning momentum, which can foreshadow a trend reversal. Final confirmation comes with a support break or bearish indicator forex trading signals .
forex signals : Walking the Bands
Moves above or below the bands are not signals per se. As Bollinger puts it, moves that touch or exceed the bands are not forex trading signals , but rather “tags”. On the face of it, a move to the upper band shows strength, while a sharp move to the lower band shows weakness. Momentum oscillators work much the same way. Overbought is not necessarily bullish. It takes strength to reach overbought levels and overbought conditions can extend in a strong uptrend. Similarly, prices can “walk the band” with numerous touches during a strong uptrend. Think about it for a moment. The upper band is 2 standard deviations above the 20-period simple moving average. It takes a pretty strong price move to exceed this upper band. An upper band touch that occurs after a Bollinger Band confirmed W-Bottom would signal the start of an uptrend. Just as a strong uptrend produces numerous upper band tags, it is also common for prices to never reach the lower band during an uptrend. The 20-day SMA sometimes acts as support. In fact, dips below the 20-day SMA sometimes provide buying opportunities before the next tag of the upper band.
Bollinger Bands reflect direction with the 20-period SMA and volatility with the upper/lower bands. As such, they can be used to determine if prices are relatively high or low. According to Bollinger, the bands should contain 88-89% of price action, which makes a move outside the bands significant. Technically, prices are relatively high when above the upper band and relatively low when below the lower band. However, relatively high should not be regarded as bearish or as a sell forex signals . Likewise, relatively low should not be considered bullish or as a buy signal. Prices are high or low for a reason. As with other indicators, Bollinger Bands are not meant to be used as a stand-alone tool. Chartists should combine Bollinger Bands with basic trend analysis and other indicators for confirmation.
Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD: Neutral
- The Euro is unlikely to get help from Mario Draghi and the ECB this week as policy is on a (mostly) preset course until at least June 2019.
- Rising trade tensions with the United States coupled with meandering inflation expectations means traders should keep expectations for any change in policy very low.
- The IG Client Sentiment Index suggests a bullish outlook for EUR/USD after positioning shifts in recent days.
See our long-term forecasts for the Euro and other major currencies with the DailyFX Trading Guides.
The Euro finished in the middle of the pack last week, gaining ground against four currencies while losing ground against three. EUR/CHF was the worst performer, dropping by -0.61%, while EUR/GBP was the best, adding +0.98%; EUR/USD was volatile but mostly directionless, adding a mere +0.33%. While the economic calendar last week was the main culprit for the lack of significant movement – there were no high rated events on the docket – the coming week features a multitude of event risk.
Starting on Tuesday, the preliminary July PMI readings for Germany and the broader Eurozone should provide a spark for price action. Typically these data releases generate a good deal of interest, although it is worth noting that the lack of meaningful change between the final June PMIs and the preliminary July PMIs may dampen the prospect for a significant move in EUR-crosses. On Wednesday, the German IFO survey for July release draws attention, although once again the lack of significant change expected in the readings limits the potential impact on markets.
The big ticket item for the week is naturally the European Central Bank meeting, although traders may want to start lowering expectations here as well. The primary reason to expect little to result from this meeting is the fact that the July meeting is one without new Staff Economic Projections; like the Federal Reserve (with its Summary of Economic Projections) or the Bank of England (with its Quarterly Inflation Report), the ECB has a multi-year track record of only making significant policy shifts at meetings when it has new economic forecasts in hand.
Moreover, and less of a generalization about ECB policymaking habits, at the previous meeting in June, the Governing Council effectively preset policy on a course through next June when President Draghi announced the schedule for winding down QE through the end of 2018 and pledged to wait on rate normalization until “summer 2019.”
A rundown of key market-based economic activity trackers provides additional evidence to expect the coming ECB meeting to be of the quieter, less impactful variety. The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the Eurozone, which was at a near-seven year when it was -100.1 on June 8, is now at to -36.8 by the end of last week. The 5-year, 5-year inflation swap forwards – Draghi’s preferred market-measure of inflation – have come down over the past month, from 1.736% on June 22 to 1.707% on July 20.
Finally, positioning is still a non-factor in mid-July. Per the CFTC’s COT report released for the week ended July 17, speculators held +21.4K net-long Euro contracts, an -86% decline from the all-time high set during the week ended April 17 (+151.5K contracts). Anyone looking for a large move around the ECB this week, predicated a large capitulation in positioning, seems sure to walk away disappointed.