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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
The single currency rallied to a high as 1.2490 in the NZ session on Monday due to improved risk appetite after weekend's announcement by PBOC to allow greater flexibility of the yuan ahead of the coming G20 meeting prompted investors to buy riskier assets initially. Stocks and commodity currencies also rallied in Asia and Europe. However, euro ended the day down against the dollar as the single currency was pressured by Fitch's downgrade of French bank BNP Paribas, this action had caused the yuan-induced euphoria to fade quickly on lingering worries over the European debt crisis. ECB's Trichet said that governments which breached the EU's fiscal rules could face tougher punishment, such as loss of voting rights and his comments also pressured euro, price eventually fell to 1.2303 in NY afternoon while DJI also pared all initial gains and ended the day down. Cross-selling in euro especially against the Swiss franc also pressured euro as eur/chf fell to a fresh lifetime low of 1.3665.
In other news, Fitch Ratings cut its rating on French bank BNP Paribas on Monday by one notch to AA- but the outlook is stable. Euro was pressured as investors were worried as the European debt crisis would spread to the European banking system. Earlier, the PBOC said over weekend that ' a more flexible currency will direct resources to domestic-demand driven sectors such as services and help curb an excessive reliance on exports'.
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback opened lower in NZ and fell to 90.01, bargain hunting by Japanese importers quickly lifted the pair and the yuan's fixing (6.8275) was the same as Friday's level. The pair then maintained a firm undertone as firmness in Asian equities (N225 up 2.4% and Shanghai Composite up by 2.9%) boosted risk appetite for yen carry trades. The pair rose sharply and eventually reached 91.48 in European mid-day. However, the pair retreated sharply from there and ended the day at 91.09 as DJI pared initial gains of 144 points and ended the day down by 8 points at 10442.
The British pound rallied in tandem with euro in NZ and climbed to 1.4936 at European opening but cable fell sharply in tandem with euro and weakened to 1.4738 in NY afternoon.
The commodity currencies also rose as PBOC's move would boost China's buying power abroad and aud/usd surged to 0.8860 while nzd/usd rose to 0.7153 and spot gold hit a record high of 1265.10. However, the commodity currencies pared their gains later due to euro's weakness.
Economic data to be released on Tuesday include: Swiss Trade balance , Germany Ifo index , EU Current account , Consumer Confidence , Canada CPI , U.S. Existing home sales.
http://www.acetraderfx.com
u r missinng one dimension in the usa and this dimension is how far FOREIGN POLICY of the state department is gonna use the financial market to pursue its objectiveS.
market forces are mental they take time sometimes twenty thirty years before they consolidate and then get a thrust that last some more decades if Allah leaves us enough time on this earth.
we r living a dictate the same dictate of the telecom set up in chicago;no on can deny it.
To come back to foreign policy and the stretch of the financial market, the key will come from the new frontiers. An intellectual property lawyer as us Ambassador in Tokyo doesnt give u clues of what is negotiated behind the scene. A californian in BERN. All is calculated move in the quantum theory( as we know it, excepted the complexity of the constant chaotic period of time that give a kind of stability). u got me on a apoint .AStrophysics and dilatation of the universe. the financial market works on the same model,ie, its on constante dilatation and retraction and that is reflected in the cosmic ray theory. that follows rules , immuable rules and one can perceive them can control itself. sometimes we derail due to an input that create a chaos, that can be voluntary or unvoluntary. no one will never be affirmative at hundred percent.
the states Europe UK china japan are on the quest of new territory nad this is particularly true for the USA. the critical mass at which a star fall or a galaxy become through process a black hole brings the object to attract and integrate the others masses by squeezing the energy field. this is if i dont mistake an entropy.
the financial market has reach their critical masses and they consolidate and through their consolidation period they consume others segments energy. 1997 1998 was an example of destruction of value and creation of value at another point on earth.
the process is long, time consuming and effort consuming and it affects human mankind because of all this unknown parameter that came in only two and half years ago and that disturbe the established rules of living from the last fifty years.
we will come out of this crisis inchallah and that will be followed by a period of stability and profusion like says the HOly scriptures.
After that lets put all in the hand of Allah.
Maybe America need to stop fighting the radical and do something radical themselves, maybe they can admit, that this huge deficits is becoming hard to handle. This Obama administration should wake up tomorrow and say thats it; no more war, lets take huge austerity measures and in effect if we get hit with huge deflation lets fight that, so we may be able to give our children and their children's children a better chance to live in fare, free, and a just world.
We have gotten to used to putting things under the carpet and clean up around it. At this rate we will only push our problems are year down into the future or 5 years or 50 and then what mate!
a quantum leap is the smallest possible change.....I agree with Trichet quantum leaps is what politics can achieve but disagree: much wider changes are required.
Moderate growth continued in the first half of the year and is expected to continue into next year
Monetary policy is appropriate
Surveillance of fiscal policy needs to be much more aggressive
EUR/USD is drifting in ranges just below 1.2400.
Sees growth continuing moderately this year and next
Uneven and uncertain growth, though
May see slight inflation increase in second half of 2010
Inflation to remain subdued in medium-term
Monetary policy stance is appropriate
Quantum leap needed in fiscal policy surveillance
European Commission should have more responsibility in fiscal surveillance
Sanctions earlier, broader in scope, surveillance deeper
Trichet's first ever speech as an optimistic. I'm inclined....