EUR

enven if you have good argues, rumours about spain shall put euro under pressured today.... it's time to short again... don't expect more upside on eurusd

I agree with catnip, this is a huge bull trap driven by many facts.

First, I do think China is behind this. It's in China's interest to underpin euro, otherwise Yuan would go up (because yuan is tied to dollar). Plus, China is buying everything in Europe...

Two, as I said in other thread here, there's a world cup effect ! As we saw in summer 2008 with Olympic Games. At that time, euro hit 1.60$ and oil 144$ per barrel. Everybody out there and my mother said it was crazy and unsustainable (no need to belong to GS team to understand that). And we know what happened next in september and october 2008.

So, for now this market is technically driven. No matter what are the news. This thing is going up till july or maybe august . We'll see.

Then, the normal course of event will come due. We might see a big european bank collapsing or even a collapse in consumer spending (taxes and income revenues are to be paid in september in France, I don't know for the piigs)

I'm pretty sure also that Greece will post one of its worse touristic seasons. The greek GDP should
also reflect that pretty soon.

For now, the bank's overnight deposit at the BCE is still going up (almost 400 billions euros) and that reminds me - again - summer 2008, before Lehman.

Need advice and like to share my experience. How do we know the next leg down is here ?

On June 4, EuroYen started declining. I told myself, better wait for confirmation. Maybe just a correction of the up move that started on June 1. Then it moved down so much and so fast that I told myself: it was very near its previous low. Most likely the down move is over. Then it moved further down and ended. I missed the whole move down of 400 pips.

Then on 15 June, it moved down more than 100 pips down from its high around 112.82. Well, I told myself the downtrend has started and I joined in. Then it started moving up.

Any advice ?

Rumor Spain needs a EUR 250 bln aide packet from EUR IMF by end of June.
I keep advocating bull run will continue to end of June no matter what fundamentals

I stand by my thesis we are watching a huge bull trap being set up...fundamentals don't matter
and chart analysts will only see buy signals. But the fundamentals of EUR continue to get eroded. For ex. its now Russia shifting currency reserves to USD and AUD and CAD selling off some of the 40% EUR denominated reserves. But EUR goes up. Other countries had shifted currency reserves at expense of EUR but EUR goes up....
thus the thesis FX markets aren't speculative is wrong then, when central banks hold back and
global exporters and industries are in a fat recession.
Given that EURUSD will despite of fundamentals such as a bankrupt savings&loan in Spain, junk sov bonds of Greece and so on go up to 1.27 and could even reach 1,33 before the bull trap
is closed with a maximum number of bulls trapped.