EUR

I agree with everyone that the rise in EUR is unsustainable, although as for topping up with shorts, of course that's a very individual decision. I'm being a little cautious there myself (a bit bolder with cable, as it happens).

As for oil, I can never figure it at all, and leave it alone these days; it's even trickier than gold and that's saying something.

Ross we still have another few weeks before Ashraf's forecast of 1.32/1.30 play out, so patience is needed - I for one am topping up on Euro/$ shorts as the Euro climbs higher. I just can't see the rise as sustainable. Next few trading days all depend on the NFP data but whatever the outcome medium term (i.e. next couple of months) I see a rise in the $ weighted index to 83-85 level and Euro at 1.30-1.33 level, so am sticking to my strategy resolutely for now - fundamentals must win out in the end in favour of the $, what happens in the middle is "noise".

Consider Tsy sells record USTs but FED is tightening , Euro countries sell record bonds but ECB is expanding. Even if they herald the opposite. EUR could top 1.36 but it will not hold. EUR is a political
currency and it is common European economy politics, the lack of any, that got EUR bonds in trouble.

1.3785 was support in June 2009 that led to the extended rally and first trendline that I started to follow. It is also prior resistance (along with the down trend line) and if the trend line breaks here, I would expect it to be retested. This is just my modest analysis, nothing complicated.