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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:
EUR
Discuss EUR in this thread
Just wondering if there are any others that are currently short or Long on Eur. I'm thinking of going long, intraday
I have not traded for couple of months and my hands are itching to short the eur, but I think it is too early. If you look at the eur/usd downtrend that has started in the beginning of December, it had two rallies, first one - 380pips - 14 days and the second one 360 - 17 days pips. Now we are in a third one which may be longer and higher. And after that aid to greece should need some news to trigger a fresh down move.
Another thing is that the short positions should cool a little to get ready for a new move.
And the last one is a huge divergence of MACD and price, which should play itself out, as its effect has just started.
So I would say the good opportunity to short eur/usd is 1.3620-30, some 360 pips higher than recent low, 1.3266. And good time should be somewhere in the middle of April.
What do you think?
pretty tough conditions..
If anyone asked me if the euro could have a chance to go further UP, i would answer YES, but also NO..
here is the explanation..
If YES counts, then there is still room for 1,3600 due to equities rally, pretty strong commodities at the moment, several technicals leading to the anticipated BIG FAT bearish bounce...all of u have ur own strategies, maybe u see some of mine as well...
IF NO counts, then FEd would need to hike THE DISCOUNT RATE..as i can remember, the last hike of THIS rate was 5 (or 6) weeks ago exactly on Tuesday at 20:00gmt (today 21pm london)...it was unannounced move from FED...but MAYBE, FED leaves room for april, who knows...
and last but not least, Mr.Ashraf also claims, that he expects this from the FED...
Good to be back, although hard getting back into it, getting the "feel" of the market.
I see that we are still bearish Euro, and sort of bearish gold, and fairly bearish GBP/USD.
Was surprised (in my absence) at cable's little turn of strength around 16/17th March, but we seem to be in bearish territory again.
So, what's happened to PippedOff? Has he gone and got himself banned or something? Seems quiet without him.
How did the London seminar go, for anyone who went? Will there be another?
perhaps my 2:1 short EURUSD may still work out if we get to Ashraf's TP of 132?
nilu
http://cgi.ebay.com.au/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=180486615305&ssPageName=STRK:MESELX:IT
It does look tempting, but the small consolidation below that resistance may push it higher - What do you reckon