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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8936
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
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whiskeybravo
United States
Posts: 18
15 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 12:23
S&P500--next stop 1200.
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
15 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 10:35
CL @ 84.4....the shorts must be feeling the pinch...lol!!!!
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Mar 31, 2010 0:47
Chloe,

Financial rel'ships are not like girlfriends, which you can change at will (or as per taste). They may TEMPORARILY break down...but they generally hold for good...and PERMANENTLY!

It's not rocket science that w/ limited liquidity in the market, limited funds will chase numerous investment opportunities. Hence, if the US data's good, the LIMITED funds would get out of the USD and get into stocks. Perhaps, there was more liquidity, and certainty, back in November that e/thing was going up. Now that interest rates are rising, QE recall on the cards and liquidity drying up...the 'relationship' is coming back to 'normal'.

Knowing traders, they won't leave their positions exposed to FOUR holidays (esp/ w/ SO much geopolitics involved currently), so expect a correction...


Asad
simao
casablanca, Morocco
Posts: 51
15 years ago
Mar 30, 2010 22:33
hello ashraf, plz can you give us your view on gold, as for know, shorting gold and waiting 1066, what do you think ?
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Mar 30, 2010 20:01
@asad,i thought we changed usd data correlation back in nov when we had very good pay roll # plus a drop in unemploy rate..to were good data was pos for both usd an markets only to have markets eventually pull back while the usd remains up or flat..but i do understand you...yes an s&p failing to retest the 1180 level hopfully markets getting tired..i have a excellent short on crude plus my suncor getting back to even..gl
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Mar 30, 2010 17:58
Said,

Think we'll see sub-80 before 83. Open your positions prudently, w/ stops & limits in place...


Asad
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Mar 30, 2010 17:57
Chloe,

NOOOOOOO! Good US data is BAD for the USD and vice versa...and a weak USD means that funds transfer to the stock market instead. Ashraf keeps on preaching this on the Forum!

Anyway, I also think that we'll see a correction - an Easter 'gift' for the traders. I"m going short on oil too...


Asad


P.S. Notice that the Dow has been flirting w/ the 10,900 mark...and has been unable to breach it DESPITE some good data & news since last week. What does this tell you? ;)
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
15 years ago
Mar 29, 2010 20:02
asad
i expect a little bit more upside on oil then my objective of 76.5 of few weeks ago will be a support for more upside.
chloethebull
halifax, Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Mar 29, 2010 16:09
@asad. i thought good us data was pos+ for the usd plus risk..lol..so hard keeping trax of the correlations..i did lock in most of the shorts but kept 1 position remaining incase we fell further..but i have been adding fresh shorts on the way up..lots of powder remaining..plus i have good hedges in place ...thanks gl
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Mar 29, 2010 15:59
Chloe,

That was because of the USD weakness, plus good US data (consumer spending). They reckon that the recovery will be quicker than usual, so oil, being one of the catalysts of recovery, HAD to shoot through the roof!

Having collected decent profits over the w/end, I hope you were able to close the positions. I reckon oil will fall from here. These guys get excited over data - once this gets absorbed, they'll go for short again...


Asad
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