EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
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But this stock market correction that many are talking about I believe will not happen this month as historically sep is a very poor US equities market. I believe the market is overpriced but I find it hard to say it will play out like the 1929 crash as monetary policy was not like it is today with QE and excess liquidity present. However, I believe we will not go down in excess of 10% in the short term (few months) for the simple reason of market being overpriced - We need some kind of big shock or simultaneous smaller as priced remain very sticky downwards. The market may easily remain overpriced or at current levels for quite some time.
Oil however is a different animal and far more risky. We could quite easily see 60 over the next few weeks. This would bring some dollar strength. But I feel that the dollar is trying to form a base and then rally for some time into 2010. This can be seen by dollar strength appearing at the end of the New York sessions.
The current downle has not matched the previous one (aug 19-24) and mini cycles tend to re-emerge.
Ashraf
When Chloe oranyone else asks me a question she knows that my prediction/opinion is based on my analysis and is NOT a certainty so theres no need to tell her or anyone else for that matter that "if Ashraf knows he will quit his job". no one claims to be 100% certain of things.
Also, for such an experienced person such yourself, what is it that you cannot grasp about me saying USDCAD could go to 1.16 in short term then 1.03 by year end ? Any chart in USDCAD or another will easily show you that USDCAD has often moved by as much as 500 pips in a SINGLE WEEK and that 800 pips in 6 weeks is very normal.. especially in USDCAD. you read this 2 or 3 times, then go look at the chart and see how that is very possible.
you have some good ideas, so i encourage you to share them and enough with the sidecomments that have neither any use nor any meaning.
Ashraf
Yes I agree, I will go long NOK and AUD some day too but against USD. For me right now it is too risky as I tend not to take much risk when things are a little bit uncertain for me. Good luck
I am trading CHF/NOK and now I am looking for a good position to short JPY/NOK. Surely NOK will strenghten against JPY,but short-term it will weaken. This is what I have mentioned many times already.
Asad, Qin (Ashraf),
we all know the oil will be lagging, dropping this September and October. USD will correlate up atleast 5%. But in the future I don't beleive USD will ever make ATH and regain it's strenght again. However, right now it is oversold, stocks are in for a deckline, oil is in for a big drop.
Shorting dollars on this levels is not a good idea.
Qin, any trading entries on USD/NOK or JPY/NOK yet?
Yes, even now I still think market will have some correction....and I am still believe it will happen....
But I don't really think the USD will rally so much as I have been keeping saying since last month, so we shouldn't long USD or short oil.......but wait to be the buyer on dips.......
By the way, Check the all the online brokers.....most of them issue trading idea everyday......and recommend people to trade everyday..........you may know why..if you trade longer enough.....
I am telling you, in my experience, if people make money on the market, they don't trade everyday, even as a daily trader........
Ashraf, sorry for speaking too straight.....but I just want to point out something that I feel very strange and the thing with my own opinion...
I have to remind you that Ashraf also posted that Dow will go down 7400 by the end of this year.....
I said impossible........even stock start declining.........wondering how he got the number.......
I recommend all of us in this blog, post some positions and entry points........otherwise, the thing will happen again.......USD/CAD short term 1.16 and 1.02 by the end of this year........by the way, we are in September now....only 4 months left.....wondering what will drive FX market to meet his prediction??
Forget Asraf...EVEN I said that oil was heading for 65...but it didn't! But does that mean you start rubbishing everyone? Ashraf and I were talking based on MARKET ANALYSIS - technical & fundamental, respectively - which doesn't ALWAYS work! But trust me, neither he, or me, is wrong! It's the market that has gone berserk for NO apparent reason! If the market WERE INDEED to go by tech & fund analysis...then oil SHOULD have been at 65...even 60 (and you will see it will be).
I've got a better idea though. How about you set up an online forum and we all believers will migrate to your site. And if you go wrong EVEN once, you'll have to take the shellacking! And then we'll see HOW you feel?
I mean...HOW can you have the audacity to enter someone's home and routinely embarrass them?
Asad，Ashraf siad oil go to 60 first last week.....did you make money from his comment??? wake up man!!! who is talking the real thing...
Yeah...depends on how much of this is in the black market! :p Usually, uranium and AUD have a +ve correlation...