Forum - Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis (Topic)

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

15 years ago

Sep 3, 2009 10:26

Guys, important not to mix up marginal cost of producinga lready found oil (about $2.5) and extraction from new discoveries (such as oil sands at over $70). As much as OPEC wants to make money, it NEVER wants to prompt prices so high to the extent of interrupting world recovery and shooting themselves in the foot. So obviously they will continue to blame high prices on speculators (which is more than 70% true) and would not want to scare the developed word into energy alternatives so quickly.

Ashraf

Qin

Jonkoping, Sweden

Posts: 492

15 years ago

Sep 3, 2009 10:23

Steven Blyth,
I used to study religious and philosophy in Japan...my major is Christian Theology and philosophy..haha....i don't think people will like it.....haha......but I studied economy and FX trade by myself.......I like FX....because I always can learn new things from it.....and making some money if I am study hard and lucky enough......

I always read many traders thinking, and bloomberg new and CNBC, just like you........but I am a very skeptic person.......I only believe half of the news or comment.......maybe less then half........

I will post when I entry the market again......good luck!!

Steven Blyth

London, UK

Posts: 148

15 years ago

Sep 3, 2009 10:13

Qin. Curious. What's your background? Im trying to put a context to your comments and why you have these thoughts?

Best
Steven

Qin

Jonkoping, Sweden

Posts: 492

15 years ago

Sep 3, 2009 10:13

I booked my profits now......good day.....

If you watch market carefully, you may see there is not so much movement on FX in US time.....maybe traders still on vacation.....

I think there will be another pull back in the market.......looking for chance to short USD/NOK again.....

Qin

Jonkoping, Sweden

Posts: 492

15 years ago

Sep 3, 2009 10:06

Steven Blyth
I believe stock market has been peak out and made new high for this year......the selling off will not be so aggressive like last year......Let say, 10% drop, 5% up...it is very possible then heavily drop everyday, on my view.....if it happens as I expected, we won't see USD rally very powerful......making USD rally, need some kind of panic news.......if everyone knows there is a correction, it won't be panic new........

If you ask everyone in the market, they will say there will be correction this month, it is a very tricky thing.....if everyone believe so, usually it won't happen.......but still we need to be careful......
If you find a bubble, try to join with it, but be sure you know it is a bubble, when it bust, you always can get out more quickly then the people who don't know.......

Steven Blyth

London, UK

Posts: 148

15 years ago

Sep 3, 2009 9:51

Request to forum members.

For those who actually know what they are talking about, keep on posting as you make positive contributions to this forum. For those who have huge opinions on the subjects but don't really know what they are talking about please keep remarks down to a minimum.

Good luck all.

Steven Blyth

London, UK

Posts: 148

15 years ago

Sep 3, 2009 9:44

FXHandler,

Greetz again. Thanks for the reply. Curious. Why does risk aversion hurt NOK more then GBP?

"Norway has a way better future than UK, GBP will loose more steam against NOK in the future. But right now, mid-term, the NOK is such a small currency, risk aversion is working against it, so is oil. I would be carefull shorting GBP/NOK now.... Very long term I see GBP/NOK at around 9,2..."

Disclosure: I have just been shaken out of my short position on this trade.

Thanks
Steven

Qin

Jonkoping, Sweden

Posts: 492

15 years ago

Sep 3, 2009 9:06

FXHandler, I didn't mean that oil production cost........but I remember Soros said that marginal cost for produce one barrel of oil is at 70........
But I know that to keep those OPEC countries' economy stay alive and stable, oil should stay above 60....otherwise their economy will get in trouble........
I am not expert on commodities, I don't trade on commodities so often, but I am learning on it.........

my position USD/NOK......it is in green now.......last night shanghai index was going up a lot........
I am not going to add more short positions today.......I may add more positions next week........I have to learn how to be patient............maybe I should go to beach today.......

life

Slovenia

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Sep 3, 2009 8:17

Asad,

FXHandler is right, figures that you here to break even (60-65 USD) do not refer to cost of oil production but to have yearly country budget's break even and not falling into deficit, which would negatively reflect on their currency reserves.

FXHandler

Norway

Posts: 195

15 years ago

Sep 3, 2009 6:20

Asad,

Saudi Oil Kingdom Resisting Renewables
Review by Sterling D. Allan
Dec. 21, 2008

On Dec. 7, 2008, 60 Minutes ran a documentary showing on-the-scene interviews between Lesley Stahl of CBS News and several oil sheiks and managers in Saudi Arabia, as well as some of their very impressive new oil production infrastructure.

The documentary addresses recent oil price fluctuations and the instability it creates for the Saudi government. It costs them only $2/barrel to produce their crude oil. The rest is used to run their country. They need at least $55/barrel to do that, so when oil drops below that point, they get nervous.
http://peswiki.com/index.php/Video:_The_Oil_Kingdom_special_by_60_Minutes_on_12/7/08

Saudi have mainly no tax, school is for free and so many other advantages for people living there. Norway is like a developing country compared to Saudi.
They are full of money!!!!!