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Total costs up to the loading of the crude oils for export, including Saudi Aramco's administrative costs, piping and terminalling, are now said to average about $2.80/b, up from less than $2.50/b in 1993. Costs were reduced as a result of reorganisation and cost-cutting measures (see background in Vol. 61, OMT No. 14)
http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/gi_0199-4763932/SAUDI-ARABIA-Producing-Oil-Costs.html
The official numbers you get is bollocks. If it was true that we needed 60 dollar to "break even" then the oil prize would be much much higher.
Remember that prize of oil was regulated before, now it is not. Speculators market, totally!!!!
Where does the money go? Well, there are allot of people out there, earning money of not doing "fuck all", so if that is included in the cost of oil production.... then it might be 10 times as high as my numbers....
Look at 60 minutes, an interview with the richest oil-sheik in Saudi, he said he don't care so much about the oil prize as long as it was over 2,5 dollar. Saudi have 1/5 of all the oil resources in the world.
The cost of a wellhead in Saudi:http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G1-57398434.html
I don't understand were this 60 dollar number of getting even comes in.... It seems redicilous high!
You can help? What do you reckon they mean that we need $X to balance out GDP...because the disparity b/w (say average) $60 (media) and $6 (FX) is humongous!! What's your take on these figs?
What are you saying man? Can you verify these minimal figures? $2.5/b for SA? Ok, even if we triple it eleven years on - 7.5 - that still believable unbelievable!
So are you actually saying that the FINAl cost of then after extraction (NOT refining) was 2.5? How can I verify this?
Please let me know where you get your data from...because even if I'm no oilman...I live and sleep oil!
Opec is one of the biggest "Mafioso" in the world. They manipulate what they want.
However, it was speculaters with enormous cash-flow that "kicked" the prize so high last Year, July.
The prize is heading lower, but I am sure that in the future we will see the same redicolous prize again...
http://www.nwotruth.com/60-minutes-did-speculation-fuel-oil-price-swings/
I work as an field Engineer in Norway (oil.business). After having checked some "break-even" prizes on internet I am shocked, it can't be true... So high! And the media gives a big variations in this estimate.. I think it is quite bullshit. I remember in 1998, for Saudi Arabia it costed them 2-2,5 dollar to produce 1 barrel and at the same time the cost was 10 dollar in Norway.
These prize predictions must be manipulated.
Qin, 60 dollar to break even? Come on....
It shows that there is allot of cost "baked" into these estimates. It is all rubbish. I don't beleive half of it. It must be manipulated! Oil companies are making money no matter how the the oil prize is. It is the service-sector that get hammered everytime..... Low prize contracts. Same same every fucking crisis...
Asad,
yes, I see 50 dollar sooner or later. 150 dollar last year is not a benchmark, that prize was peaking cause of speculation, 25 dollar gain in one day (look at 60 minutes).
If we see 150 dollar again, then we will for sure have another crisis....
I suspect that they will cut supply, at least announce it.......if the price below 60....
They are all good on bargain as they always did before...
To correct your analysis, the averages for ME producers to balance their GDP differs! For example, SA needs a price above $45 to sustain while Iran needs $65. Venezuela, another oil major needs $60. It is THIS difference which causes politicking amongst the OPEC members (& hence accusations of 'cheating' on production quotas). It is this politics that the US looks to (unsuccessfully) exploit...
I've stated this before...and I'll add about 15% to your probability of sub 50 oil. Besides falling demand, world's crude storage capacity is near 90% - I believe we have more-than-enough oil to sustain winters.
Shorting oil, I repeat, is the SUREST bet the market has to offer. USD...we don't know, S&P...we don't know, gold...we don't know. But oil, technically & fundamentally, HAS to come down (barring the Israel/Natanz scenario). Next week, this time, Smiler WILL be smiling ...
To keep middle east oil reserve countries' economy alive and stable.....oil should stay above 60.....it is the break even for them........They will do something to achieve that......
One of thing is selling USD which they just did last week when EUR/USD reached to 1.4050.....I think they are big players and big enough to do it.......so if they keep doing it, the pare will not break 1.4 this year, and oil price will stay about 60 or 65.....
US don't have any choice on oil price now.....we have seen the price ignore inventory number for months.........
Ashraf, I am playing on USD/NOK now, because I bet EUR/USD won't break 1.4 this year, the reason I just mentioned above......I will consider to short GBP/USD or long EUR/NOK when EUR/USD break 1.4 and stay firmly blow that.......
FXHandler, who is Dr dooms?? Marc Faber?? I will post when I start to short Yen......but it will a few month ahead of us.......
Ashraf