EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
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very interesting book.
I would be interested in having more details about your currency returns calculation and ranking done in the chapter 3.
I don't really understand how you c
Vido, check out John Person's book on Candles and Pivots in FX
Ashraf
Hi Ashraf,
very interesting book indeed!
Could you in addition suggest a more quantitative and/or technical analysis based Forex book-research?
Thank you in advance,
vido
The unemployment and spending drag in the US are the major differnces from the 2002-08 USD decline.
Ashraf
2001-2008 Dollar depreciated, Oil and commodities boomed and Fed's lax monetary policy led to the housing asset bubble in US and more bubbles in EM equities etc. Euro gained during this time. The Bubbles in US housing burst leading to a recession bringing down global demand via since global economy was not "deleveradged".
Because US was debasing the dollar and running large deficits, it caused inflation and oil spike resutling in a global ecession. Although Euro zone was affected, ECB did nothing much - eventually resuting in Eurozone recession too. (Should ECB had considered softening?....but ECB has only price stability mandate)
How is the situation different now? US is again debasing its currency leading to a loss in dollar index. Would it not again cause a commodity and oil spike? Would it not cause the Euro to be over valued? This should push Eurozone deeper into recession rather than a growth story?
I cannot understand how Eurozone can sit idle and allow US Fed to cause EURUSD to go, for example, above 1.50 and definately above 1.6. This should somehow lead to intervention by the Eurozone governments in some way.
China and US are already practicing weak currency policies. The only way other countries can compete is also to weaken their currencies - and eventually causing new bubbles to emerge.
The US is in no way ready to increase taxes and China is not ready to allow its currency to appreciate easily. Meanwhile scores of countries including the middle east are linked to the dollar.
So, in summary, I agree with your current projection for 1.57 for the Eurusd. At the same time, I think it is not sustainable. Intervention may creep in or else the Eurozone is in deep trouble.
How is 2009-10 fall of the Dollar different from 2002-2008?
your thoughts, as always, are much appreciated
br,
jamshed
Ashraf
Let see that if EUR/USD will close above 1.4260 as Ashraf mentioned....
Good luck!
The choppy price has been for more than a month....
Can we seen the market will end its directionless soon? Or I will have one or two month to wait?
Best regards
Qin