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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 1, 2011 0:30
Comments: 1846
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This thread was started in response to the :

Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis
 
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fab
France
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 18, 2009 12:53
Hi Ashraf,
very interesting book.
I would be interested in having more details about your currency returns calculation and ranking done in the chapter 3.
I don't really understand how you c
vido
Zurich, Switzerland
Posts: 3
15 years ago
Aug 17, 2009 12:22
Thanks!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 16, 2009 21:29
jamshed, ECB is not sitting idle as you say. the bulk of the dollar selloff is a result of deteriorating budegt deficit--expected to $1.5 trillion leaving FX traders little choice but to sell it. Im not going to restate what i have done her emany times about Eurozone fundamentals being weak but not as weak as the US, but the story remains the same. ECB not pursuing the same level of qtv easing as US is also weighing on USD. FInally as i argued in my book the Euro has long acted as the ANTI DOLLAR soeach time say commodity currencies do well vs USD, EUR gains.


Vido, check out John Person's book on Candles and Pivots in FX

Ashraf
vido
Zurich, Switzerland
Posts: 3
15 years ago
Aug 15, 2009 10:12

Hi Ashraf,

very interesting book indeed!
Could you in addition suggest a more quantitative and/or technical analysis based Forex book-research?

Thank you in advance,
vido
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 4, 2009 18:41
jamshed, all good questions. much of that depends on how SOOn we get above 1.55 in EURUSD. if we get there in 3 weeks it is more of a problem if we get there in 3 months, byu which time Eurozone would be more able to sustain currency strength. The OTHER THING THAT IS IMPORTANT is that much of the Eurozone trade ( i believe over 50%) is intraEurozone i.e. forex rates are irrelevant.

The unemployment and spending drag in the US are the major differnces from the 2002-08 USD decline.

Ashraf
jamshed
Pakistan
Posts: 57
15 years ago
Aug 4, 2009 14:41
Hi Ashraf,

2001-2008 Dollar depreciated, Oil and commodities boomed and Fed's lax monetary policy led to the housing asset bubble in US and more bubbles in EM equities etc. Euro gained during this time. The Bubbles in US housing burst leading to a recession bringing down global demand via since global economy was not "deleveradged".
Because US was debasing the dollar and running large deficits, it caused inflation and oil spike resutling in a global ecession. Although Euro zone was affected, ECB did nothing much - eventually resuting in Eurozone recession too. (Should ECB had considered softening?....but ECB has only price stability mandate)

How is the situation different now? US is again debasing its currency leading to a loss in dollar index. Would it not again cause a commodity and oil spike? Would it not cause the Euro to be over valued? This should push Eurozone deeper into recession rather than a growth story?

I cannot understand how Eurozone can sit idle and allow US Fed to cause EURUSD to go, for example, above 1.50 and definately above 1.6. This should somehow lead to intervention by the Eurozone governments in some way.

China and US are already practicing weak currency policies. The only way other countries can compete is also to weaken their currencies - and eventually causing new bubbles to emerge.

The US is in no way ready to increase taxes and China is not ready to allow its currency to appreciate easily. Meanwhile scores of countries including the middle east are linked to the dollar.

So, in summary, I agree with your current projection for 1.57 for the Eurusd. At the same time, I think it is not sustainable. Intervention may creep in or else the Eurozone is in deep trouble.

How is 2009-10 fall of the Dollar different from 2002-2008?
your thoughts, as always, are much appreciated

br,
jamshed
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 25, 2009 11:39
And so EURUSD once again closes nearly a full cent below its session highat 1.4198.

Ashraf
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Jul 23, 2009 15:40
Hey,
Let see that if EUR/USD will close above 1.4260 as Ashraf mentioned....

Good luck!
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
15 years ago
Jul 23, 2009 15:32
cable and eur/usd reaching their res levels...Italian stock market rocketed up ~200 points in last 7 minutes
Qin
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
15 years ago
Jul 23, 2009 15:26
Hey, Ashraf
The choppy price has been for more than a month....

Can we seen the market will end its directionless soon? Or I will have one or two month to wait?

Best regards
Qin
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