Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

i think equities are harder to predict than currency trends. but problem is that investors tend to extrapolate past performance and disregard other issues around the world.

I think historically stocks are overvalued on S&P Price to Earnings multiples. So unless earnings start to rise quite quickly which is highly unlikely, stocks will be on a long path down which will reinforce the dollar bull market.

I think one needs to analyse trade balances with the US to look at signs about the value of the dollar in the future as well as investnent flows. if the US start to consume less, their current account defiict should narrow and help the dollar in the future. the current account may reduce sharply if the US changes its spending habits. So as long as they do the dollar will go up. Also, if the US does come out of the recession first but remains to consume less than pre-recession levels, there will speculative flows into the dollar on a surpirse basis and one that wont be priced in to the dollar now.

so which ever way you look at it the dollar is bound to go up UNLESS the governments around the world start to adandon the Dollar which is all a load of rubbish for now.

ashraf belives we are on a dollar bear market and we will see a small rebound in the dollar before it resumes its secular downwards path. i think we are in for a multi year bull in the dollar and support was called in 2008 (see USDx on this site)

Hi Ashraf, several large banks are predicting a much higher dollar by the end of the year based on a forecast of a faster recovery in the US. Given the inverse correlation between the dollar and the stock indices, are they also saying that the stock market will be in much lower levels? So far, the uptrend of the dollar from oct 2008 appears to be mainly due to deleveraging from risky assets and seeking safe haven with the dollar. are they forecasting some sort of a change in this inverse correlation? sorry if this question is a simple one most traders would already know. TIA

stubbs

Mr. Laidi,
Where I can make an order your WOrkBook ?
Thanks
William

Ashraff - Is your book available in soft copy.

thanks,

Sun