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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 1, 2011 0:30
Comments: 1846
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This thread was started in response to the :

Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
May 1, 2009 9:36
Ashley, you may be rigtht, this time it could take more than 8 weeks. maybe 10 or 12. As for the magnitude, i thik this so-called breather has happenned too far to fast. 30% rally in 7 weeks with hardly any reversal is a little to rapid for a US and world economy clearly in recession.

Ashraf
Ashley
United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
May 1, 2009 4:02
I was checking you 2 month cycle charts. The graph is interesting. But what makes you think, that the previous pattern will repeat itself. The markets seem to complete a textbook 5 wave cycle down in March. Dont you think the markets would take a breather after a 50% move down.

cheers,

Ashley
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Apr 30, 2009 8:25
Sam, the sharp rally in Asia has triggerred risk appetite trades in FX. 880 in S&P500, 4,200-4,300 in FTSE-100 and 9,000 in Nikkei-225 are roughly the upper thresholds.

Do not forget the likelty confusion emerging with the stress tests next week.

Ashraf
Samuel
Jakarta, Indonesia
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 30, 2009 4:09
Ashraf, Kindly advise for your comment : Sticking with the bearish call for equities issued before the FOMC. The retreat in stocks off their highs further unwinding FX risk trades i.e. dragging down GBP, EUR, AUD and NZD vs USD and JPY.

Regards,
Sam
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Apr 29, 2009 13:01
Hi Javier, at the moment, the information is free and not updated daily. This may change soon. In the meantime, you can try the FT in this link
http://markets.ft.com/markets/overview.asp?ftauth=1241006331820

Ashraf
javierito
Guadalajara, Spain
Posts: 2
15 years ago
Apr 29, 2009 12:13
Hi Ashraf,
First of all congratulations for your book. it is great. I just have a doubt:
where can i get 2-10 year spreads charts and 10 year bond yields intercountry charts up to date? I know you show them on your web, but i would like them to have them on time, and i wouldnt mind topay an annual fee or whatever.
Thanks again
sandeep
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 27, 2009 20:54
Thanks Ashraff. Would you have absolute levels on gold and dow if the ratios were to slide to 4 and then 1.5. I saw the 2 month cycle postion, which implies we are near the end of the current 2 month honeymoon period.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Apr 27, 2009 20:47
Sandeep, the Dow/Gold ratio and S&P500/Gold ratio often shows rebounds/consolidations lasting for about 6-7 months. The recent low was in February, after which we obviously consolidated due a rebound in equities, which I have predicted throughout these past 2 months (see here comes the 2 month cycle). I still expect the Dow/Gold ratio to fall below 4.0 later this year and onto around 1.5 in 2010. Causes and implications of such developments would be more established evidence of a distressed banking system and its corrosive impact on the street.

Ashraf
sandeep
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Apr 27, 2009 19:25
Ashraff - I saw u on CNBC few wks back and you were mentioning abt the dropping Dow-Gold ratio frpm 2000. Since March 6 the ratio has reversed from 6 and change to 9 odd. Do you think the period going on now is a countertrend and the ratio starts falling back again. Kondratieff wave experts say the ratio has to get close to 2 or 3 to form a bottom of significant importance. Would be keen to know ur call on this. Where would that leave Gold, Dow and rest of the economy.

Look fwd to reading ur book.

thanks,

Sandeep
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Apr 27, 2009 7:41
Nora,

EURJPY is highly correlated with risk appetite due to the yen part of the story as well as due to teh fact that EUR is highly inverselly correlated with USD, and sicne USD is inversly related to risk appetite than that's teh answer for you.

AUD, NZD already reulctant to rally despite stocks' pushing higher because FX is expecting risk appetite to retreat very soon. Same story with GBP. NZD and GBP will have more downside than AUD.

Ashraf
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