Intraday Market Thoughts

The Eye of the Hurricane, Onto IFO Survey

by Adam Button
Feb 23, 2012 6:38

US trading was lackluster during a quiet week of economic data and as the market recovers from the Greek saga. On the day, CHF and EUR were the top performers while GBP and JPY lagged. The economic calendar is quiet until IFO data from Germany. The latest Premium trades (announced earlier) include EURUSD, EURGBP, USDCAD, GBPCAD, gold, oil and ESH.

The larger moves in European trading consolidated in the US. US existing homes sold at a pace of 4.57 million compared to the 4.67m consensus estimate but the market took almost no notice of the data.

Belgian business sentiment, which is a decent indicator for Thursdays IFO, rose to -7.7 from -9.5.

Gold jumped $17 to $1777, the highest close since Nov and above a double-top from Dec/Feb. The $1800 psychological level also coincides with the Nov high.

Cable fell hard in European trading on the dovish BOE minutes but remains relatively well-supported as long as 1.5644 holds. A fall below the 55-day moving avg at 1.5606 would add further damage.

The spotlight is shifting back toward the SNB as EUR/CHF edges back toward 1.2050. Given the newfound stability in the European periphery, it is worrisome that this pair is not moving higher.

The first meaningful indicator of the day comes at 0900 GMT when Germany releases IFO data. The consensus is for an improvement to 108.8 from 108.3.

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