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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Mar 20, 2009 15:05
Comments: 54
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Gauging the Turn in Dollar, Gold & Oil

The Fed's latest negative-dollar move is likely to last more than in previous occasions.
 
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Brendan
UK
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Apr 6, 2009 2:56
Ashraf, I agree with you. My system shows that EURUSD is overbought, should be coming down anytime.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Apr 2, 2009 12:30
TAHA, ECB press conference will be key. US payrolls may cause much volatility but no lasting impact beyond 2 days. G20 already moving markets after annoucnement to fund the IMF.

ROB, this time i see a U-shaped recovery in US with rebound in early 2010 before renewed slowdown. Dow 5600-700 around end of Q2 early Q3.

SHANKAR, yes, favoring NOK, AUD and EUR when things stabilize. I dont like CAD even though it will do well against JPY (like every other currency) when things are good.

Ashraf
Shankar
Australia
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Apr 2, 2009 8:51
My personal opinion would be that best currency to buy when things appear to calm down, (there is some sense of direction on world economy,) AUD or CAD against JPY. or selll USD against asian currencies like Korean won.

it would be nice to hear what Ashraf's opinion is.
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
16 years ago
Apr 1, 2009 17:42
Hi Ashraf,

In response to your comment to Shankar - I bet you'd say NOKKIE and AUSSIE, yes? - that is to buy against USD when things stabilize.

Also, if you have a minute or two (more) to spare, can you give a general forecast on the US/Global economic recovery? Do you see an L-shaped deflationary recession/depression coming, or do you feel policies are in order for more of a U-shaped recovery? It seems that the V-shaped recovery is off the table. If you can give time frames that would be great too. I know you are a numbers guy though, obviously, and say 5000-5500 in dow before we bottom and that's more important than the timimg. I know this is a general question and can be a long answer - so only if you find the time. Thanks as always, Ashraf!
taha
Cairo, Egypt
Posts: 50
16 years ago
Apr 1, 2009 13:15
Hi Ashraf ,
Do you think that the decisions of G20 summit will impact more than ECB decision or non farm employment ? .
Which will be the important for forex traders ? .
Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Apr 1, 2009 2:57
Shankar, yes, that is a fair assessment. This has been a central thesis of Chapter 8 on Risk Appetite in my book. The trick here is which currencies are best to BUY against the USD or JPY when stocks rise.

Ashraf
Shankar
Australia
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
Apr 1, 2009 2:13
Asraf, would it be fair to say, if and when markets appear to stabilize, far from things improve. USD and JPY will be the worst performing currencies.
Shankar
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Mar 31, 2009 17:34
Luca, thanks for the generous compliment. As for the age, might you be mistaking that age with Ron Insana's, who's the author of the Foreword in my book? Ron Insana is the first person ever to have reported from floor of the NYSE, is a well known follower of the markets and author of several books, one of which "The Message of the Markets".

Thanks

Ashraf
fisherking61
Lausanne, Switzerland
Posts: 4
16 years ago
Mar 31, 2009 17:10
Hi Ashraf.

Sorry if my questions generated the wrong impressions a few days ago. I had not paid sufficient attention at how you indicated the April timeframe for a possible rally in gold, my mistake. I do agree that the quantity, continuity and quality of information is way above the call of duty for a free website. For instance, it would be reasonable to have your hotcharts section as part of paid subscription service (OK, I know that other readers will hate me for saying this ....). The most important thing, however, is wishing you a happy 48th birthday (I was also born in 1961, about 7 weeks before you, now you see how carefully I read your book!). While you work on the "platinum-tier" of your website, I will be delighted to take you out to lunch next time business takes you to Switzerland or I am in London, just as an advance payment ,-).

I wish there were a listed ETF tied to your credibility, I would buy a truckload thereof!

Luca
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
Mar 31, 2009 16:09
Hi Christine.

You may remember me mentioning on Saturday in the seminar about central banks capping the price of gold, hence, the topic in today's newspaper. My gold call remains a long term forecast. But as long as $880 holds, the short term outlook also remains bolstered.

Thanks

Ashraf
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