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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Mar 20, 2009 15:05
Comments: 54
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Gauging the Turn in Dollar, Gold & Oil

The Fed's latest negative-dollar move is likely to last more than in previous occasions.
Hong Kong
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 22, 2009 2:14
Hi Ashraf,

I would like to add on something about gold.

Since last Oct, the change of U.S. Monetary Base took the lead of the gold movement. Before gold spot retreated from $1000+ to $900, monetary base has already declined from the peak about 1 month ago. Around 2 weeks ago, monetary base began to pile up again and gold price also seemed to find the base.

U.S. Fed begins to purchase long term treasuries and MBS, which may boost the money supply in that case and gold may maintain the bullish trend as you mentioned.
New York, United States
Posts: 9
13 years ago
Mar 21, 2009 18:57
With the DXY index reaching $89.60 (a 38% retracement from the lows in summer of 2008 at $71 and the highs of $120 in 2002) what do you foresee in the medium term? A move to 93-95 keeps the bear market intact, but over that could prove to be a game changer. Also, is there a scenario where you see the dollar falling vs hard assets such as precious metals, base metals, and energy and less so vs. the pairs (euro, yen, pound, etc). Also, do you have a target on gold and oil 6 months+ out.

Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Mar 20, 2009 18:25
Peter B,

I'd say $1.40 max for now.

Peter B
United Arab Emirates
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Mar 20, 2009 17:31
So, what do we see in mid end of April-Mid May...EUR/USD at 1.45?
Thanks for your help.
Peter B