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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: May 14, 2009 16:44
Comments: 54
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Oil to Underperform Metals

Forex, oil, gold & equity implications of rebounding Gold/Oil Ratio.
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 19, 2009 18:24
gary, USDCAD has higher (inverse) correlation with SP & Dow since May and April than CADJPY and USDNOK. USDCAD corrln since April 1st @ -0.74 vs -0.63 for USDNOK & +0.65 for AUDJPY. updated 2x /month. And oil has grown more invrsly related w/ Dow & S&P since April (+0.78) compared to +0.56 since March. What does that mean for trading? short CAD vs JPY and USD if you expect falling stocks. long CAD as almost full hedge vs short indices.

correlations in Workbook updated at least once per month

just put this on twitter

Ashraf
gary
toronto, Canada
Posts: 19
16 years ago
May 19, 2009 18:00
speaking of correlations, your workbook shows USD/CAD and CAD/JPY are very closely tracking s&p500 and DJI. how's NOK correlated with stocks. is it more or less than loonie? thks

G
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 19, 2009 16:56
Slaiman, thers lots of talk about that backwardation recurring.. im not sure if we'll get to that yet. supplies must be more ample.

Gary, yes, Canadian CPI y/y seen at 0.6% from 1.2% and 1.8% y/y from 2.0%, which is no good for CAD but we know CAD is highly correlated with stocks, so keep that in mind. 1.15 remains key retracement support. The workbook (which you ordered last week) has info on correlation between stocks and CADJPY as well as USDCAD.

Ashraf
gary
toronto, Canada
Posts: 19
16 years ago
May 19, 2009 16:28
Ashraf, whats the play for canadian inflation numbers tomorrow? if oil stays under 59 and canada inflation on weak side then how bad is it for loonie? thanks

G
slaiman7
Lebanon
Posts: 31
16 years ago
May 19, 2009 16:16
Backwardation, if it happens, could really knock down the price of oil. Ashraf, do you see it happening anytime soon?

Slaiman
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 19, 2009 16:06
Sachin, Rob, Note how GBPJPY Weekly candles tunring horizontal (from diagonal). looks bearish but more comfortable in selling NZDJPY and AUDJPY (much cheaper)


Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
16 years ago
May 19, 2009 15:30
Went short GBP/JPY this time, perhaps a tad too early - however, have you looked at the 4-hour or daily chart - seems as if 150.00 couldn't be breached 3x already and is a very strong resistance, would you agree?
sachin
New Jersey, United States
Posts: 3
16 years ago
May 19, 2009 15:24
Hi Ashraf,

what do you think is the upside limit on gbp/jpy and nzd/jpy?

Sachin
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
16 years ago
May 19, 2009 15:16
I've been selling both EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY on downward moves in stocks - do you prefer EUR/JPY over GBP/JPY because the EUR is the weaker currency? It seems to me that GBP/JPY loses more (and gains more) depending on the direction of the day?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 19, 2009 14:46
Spec, good point but careful about the timelag for PPP to become true.

Rob, the economic logic you state is correct. but markets reflex is to worry about job implications of the fact that starts fell to new low despite the fact that they fell for 9 our of last 10 months. so one wonders how much more we have to fall to stop touching the low.

selling USDJPY and EURJPY on the rallies remains key

Ashraf
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