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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: May 14, 2009 16:44
Comments: 54
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Oil to Underperform Metals

Forex, oil, gold & equity implications of rebounding Gold/Oil Ratio.
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 18, 2009 12:46
Speculator, let's see if it succeeds in breaking above $1.5380. 200-day MA remains at $1.56. Monday is light in data and risk appetite usually gains on such days. we've seen this movie before.

Ashraf
Speculator
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
May 18, 2009 11:10
I agree but just read today on bloomberg that that pound is now very bullish according to GS as they see speculative pounds being bought to bolster foreign investment into UK real estate funds. Furthermore it seems there are far few short position on sterling since a couple of months ago. Are you suggesting a rapid turnaround in sentiment?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 18, 2009 10:58
Speculator, much of that strength was sustained by rally in equities and UK banks. Too many doubts with UK banks being furthe nationalized and with the recession not expected to diminish any time soon. But the biggest problem with sterling is the recrod public debt and borrowing of guilts (bonds).

Ashraf
Speculator
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
May 18, 2009 10:19
Ashraf,

How comes you were so bearish on the Pound when you issued the pole so recently.

Cable seems to be maintaining strength.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 18, 2009 10:09
Gary, the analysis in Workbook suggests nxt year could well be the low for $/Y and this year for cable.

Taha, too many doubts with UK banks being furthe nationalized and with the recession not expected to diminish any time soon. But the biggest problem with sterling is the recrod public debt and borrowing of guilts (bonds).

Ashraf
taha
Cairo, Egypt
Posts: 50
16 years ago
May 18, 2009 6:33
Hi Ashraf ,
Could you answer the question , Why the Gbp was the only currency that did not surpass its 200day MA against USD ? .
Taha
gary
toronto, Canada
Posts: 19
16 years ago
May 18, 2009 1:25
hey ashraf, about those 20 year cycles in the yen and pound in your intermarkt dynamics workbook: which you think will repeat itself? $/Yen falling hard again, but do u still think 2010 will be the low? great work in the workbook !

G
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 17, 2009 18:40
Cappy, If you bought my Workbook, then take a look at the section on USDJPY multiyear cycles

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 17, 2009 18:38
Taha, the latest article indicates my expectations for lower oil not higher oil. Only when world growth picks up sometimes next year and the dollar drops sharply would oil push back up towards high 70s/

Speculator, i linked that story in my twitter. It's not the first time British economic data gets it wrong. Obviously the errors put a dampener on sterling's recovery. Ask yourself why is it that GBP was the only currency that did not surpass its 200day MA against USD.

Cappy, USDJPY showed one of the biggest declines in any pair this past week. Yen rose across the board (see my IMT about yen strength and falling stocks) and dollar was a big loser.

Ashraf
Cappy
United States
Posts: 19
16 years ago
May 16, 2009 21:35
Hi Ashraft,

Do you think USD/JPY is headed south? If so, why do you think so and how far down do you think it will go?

Thanks ahead of time for any comments,

Cappy
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