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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 13, 2009 16:38
Comments: 200
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Unsustainable Appetite in FX, Equities & Oil

We're witnessing more signs of peaking appetite, this time inside the individual Forex pairs, as well as more failure in oil and Chinese stocks
 
 
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FXHandler
Norway
Posts: 195
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 15:06
Hi Ashraf

I see you predict GBP/YEN to 148.00. Last time it peaked to this level was 13 of July and several other Major currencies strenghtened agains minor ones that day (e.g. CHF and EUR). If YEN hits this level, how do you see CHF against NOK at that time?

Best Regards
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 10:45
Duncan, could tell us that other Asian equities and EM could get nervous and start to pullback too. Risk aversion = sustaining Yen solidity

Kleoo, i see GBPJPY at 148.00 by end of August

Ashraf
kleooo
BG, Norway
Posts: 17
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 10:40
Hi Ashraf.

Where do you see GBPJPY go by the end of august?
Duncan
Singapore
Posts: 1
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 10:28
Hi Ashraf,

What do you think the huge fall in shanhai when the rest of the equity markets are going up signify? Any opportunities in FX?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 9:27
Don, oil prices dont always rise during hurricane season. growth and appetite to have more of an impact. there's talk that this year hurricane season starting a little late which raises risks of the BIG ONE happening, but i give more weight on the likelihood of a quiet storm in the market.

Sun,yes, EURJPY should join the selloff but it is in NO hurry after those strog GDP figs from Germ and Fran. focus on GBPJPY (more volatile) and USDJPY.

Ashraf
Sun
New York, United States
Posts: 3
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 4:05
Ashraf - shouldnt the EUR-JPY chart be thrown into the mix too...

from a timing perspective, when would the bounce seem to fade....
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Aug 14, 2009 0:50
Don,

Ah! What a gem!! We almost forgot what happened to the BP refineries couple of years ago...

P.S. Good excuse for Goldman & Morgan to hype up the commodity! ;)
Don
United States
Posts: 1
15 years ago
Aug 13, 2009 23:52
Ashraf,

As we enter the Hurricane season in earnest, I am not sure I would short oil here. Maybe pick up a little DTO to hedge my positions.

Regards,

Don Baldes
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Aug 13, 2009 23:32
Rob, thanks for pointing out the error, i just corrected it to read 2008 and not 2009. My advice to you is that to be able to sustain a loss of at least 200 pips in GBPJPY due to its fluctuations. I see GBPJPY capped at 158.40 in Asia but things could pop higher if Asian bulls have an epiphany. Did you see how USDJPY collapsed by 60 pips in 1 secondd after retail sales? Well if US indus prodcution is strong then it could drive up GBPJPY. So getting in above 157.50 for a 200 pip profit is feasible.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Aug 13, 2009 21:27
Hi Ashraf,

Nice charts - All of them!!! I'm excited about the S&P chart, because I just sold all my long small-cap stocks at about 3:58pm eastern. Thanks for the info.

Not be nit-picky but I was reading and got confused - should the GBP comments (underlined) under the chart read: Note how GBP/USD first fell below its 50-day MA in Q3 2008 **** (as opposed to 2009)

So I punked out of my short GBP/USD because I thought equities were going to power on early in the morning. I'd like to get in GBP/JPY but I think if the Asian session starts profit-taking from the huge in the US session, we may see quite a bounce in that pair. And as you know, that pair sky-rockets, it doesn't really bounce. Any thoughts on entry points. Thanks for all. Time for SDS it seems.
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