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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 22, 2009 3:37
Comments: 852
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VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

BRICS equity indices fail at key fib retracements, VIX and oil near major trend lines and sterling's sell-appeal hasn't looked this good in a while.
 
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nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
15 years ago
Oct 14, 2009 20:11
Investment in oil/gas exploration and production fell by $100 billion globally in 2009 from the year prior, says IEA economist Birol.
Upside risks remain as dollar weakness continues. Crude is at a year high. Will wait for a clear break either way before taking a trade.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 14, 2009 17:52
Asad, jack, oil traders have all the incentives of USD weakness to retest that 200-week MA, which they failed 3 weeks ago. GS earnings will come BEFORE THE BELL tomorrow and about THREE hours before the EIA figures so the PERFECT STORM FOR HIGHER OIL would be a GS earnings blow out and DROP in oil inventories.

stone, 80% chance they will add at least 25 bln once the 175 bln is done.

Ashraf
mondo
portsmouth, UK
Posts: 22
15 years ago
Oct 14, 2009 16:39
Ashraf how much further do you expect the boe to continue quantitive easing?
thanx
Gunjack
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 14, 2009 12:24
@Asad & Forum I don't expect Oil to rise infinitessemely. But no one can deny the wall of money out there which has driven asset prices higher and lifted commodity prices by ~ 4%. At the moment I am bearish below 76.2 and the initial move above 75 this morning didn't trigger any stop loss buying, meaning most traders still have faith in the 200 wk MA. But if the USD continues it's sell off and the top of the trading range gets broken, well then as a rational investor is my duty to turn and join the wave up. Lets not forget GS q4 forecast of USD 85...The inventory data on thursday should provide more insight on the next few moves
radu
bucharest, Romania
Posts: 203
15 years ago
Oct 14, 2009 11:17



Hi Pipster ,
Yaaa , sometimes i have bizzare inclinations...:)
I was short ...i close the position with a little damage and now wait the news...i think wti is very influenced this week by the news ...earnigs will be good probably and usd goes down but retails sales no plus 75.40 200days MA...so i wait
Pipster
birmingham, UK
Posts: 111
15 years ago
Oct 14, 2009 11:13
Hi Asad,

Can I just check something. My checks have ld me to believe that the Dow will drop from next week from around the 19th onwards. If this was the case am I correct in saying Oil should breakdown as well. This would also fit your theory -thanks for your input
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 14, 2009 11:07
Not only that, I'm putting my money where my mouth is! I went short on oil at 75.10 and, again, will STAY short for couple of weeks (until I drag it down). Oil should, and will, come down because there are NO fundamentals to it!


Asad
Pipster
birmingham, UK
Posts: 111
15 years ago
Oct 14, 2009 11:01
Radu,

Hi - I know Asad is bearish on Oil from 75. Are yuou inclined as well.
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 14, 2009 10:02
Poborsky,

I don't know. Oil would not be allowed to reach 100 because it would hamper economic recovery! Anyway, there isn't that much demand, neither is supply in a crunch. As for USD fundamentals, the worst i can fall is for oil to reach early 80s...but that's it.

There is a higher chance of Qin opening his own forum than oil reaching 100... :)


Asad
poborsky
Torrevieja, Spain
Posts: 7
15 years ago
Oct 14, 2009 5:46
Asad

I respect your opinions, but oil and dollar fundamentals IMHO say its going up. As I said, this is one time when I hope I am wrong and that your call is correct.
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