Forum > View Topic (Article)
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 22, 2009 3:37
Comments: 852
View Article
This thread was started in response to the Article:

VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

BRICS equity indices fail at key fib retracements, VIX and oil near major trend lines and sterling's sell-appeal hasn't looked this good in a while.
 
1...171819202122232425262728293031...86
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Oct 23, 2009 12:03
Everyone. see my article about oil's 100 week avg at 82.00. Watch today's exist home sales from the US and if they crimp risk appetite. My twitter updated talked about buying NZD vs GBP, which is up 40 pips

Ashraf
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
15 years ago
Oct 23, 2009 10:25
Dan - Maybe I wasn't clear in my point but I am saying eur/usd is a proxy for Oil...So rising euro and lowed USD will boost Oil. I have been long Oil and euro for a few weeks now
Dan
New York, United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 23, 2009 4:12
Gunjack, I would argue the other way around: oil is rising b/c dollar is sagging, euro being the primary anti-dollar currency.
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
15 years ago
Oct 21, 2009 20:25
eurusd remains a key proxy for Oil performance ( Ashraf had a chart on this relationship) and many TA are saying 1.6 is theoretically possible on this pair ( which my rough calculations tell me, we could hit $90 plus on crude). Technically speaking as long as oil holds 74.9 I remain bullish and we could be looking towards $83. Fundamentally until the perception of the Macro rally sours, Oil will continue to rally.

Ashraf could we kindly get your learned opinion on this matter?

Thanks
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
15 years ago
Oct 21, 2009 17:40
Ashraf,
got oil short at just at $81.00.will it be good trade?
regards,
rajib
Abood26
Damascus, Syria
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 21, 2009 16:49
hello Ashraf where is the rest. for OIL
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 21, 2009 13:39
Forum,

Having shorted at 75.10, 77.50 and 79.92 (average 77.5), my loss is more or less covered! Still, I could've covered my losses at 77.64...but I decided to remain short (as I had announced a week back). I expect oil to fall to 75...and then we should be racing down to early 70s.

Should this be breather to a run up to breaking 80, then bad luck to me. In that case, at least I have the satisfaction of knowing that I didn't blindly follow the market...and employed my common sense!


Asad
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 20, 2009 21:52
Moe,

Thanks! I understand that 79 is completely unjustified. What al-Badari said was that oil is up ONLY due to weakness of the USD - the fundamentals are completely pointing towards oversupply and a decreased oil price.

If you note, 80 is proving difficult to sustain. Also, many call options have been placed above 80 - if oil breaks 80 comfortably...we'll be running towards 85 (because call options HAVE to be covered). If we go below 75, well be racing down to 70 (because opposite options have to be covered). Very interesting situation.

The housing data has added further complexity to the situation. This week IS, and WILL BE interesting. I;m short...and I'll stay that way!


Asad
Moe
Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
Posts: 50
15 years ago
Oct 20, 2009 21:35
Asad

Hope that you are reading this, the API data showed a surplus of Crude by more than 3 Million Barrels...
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Oct 20, 2009 14:32
Ashraf,

Aaaahhh - you're back! Should've asked for s/thing else. :)

Btw, I came across this interesting piece of Q&A w/ Bilal Hafeez (global head of forex research, DB) on his thoughts about currencies, going forward.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/77cc5346-b8b6-11de-809b-00144feab49a.html

You may already have read this, but maybe other members can benefit. Interesting that this young lad affects Deutsche's leadership in the forex market!


Asad
Report Reply
1...171819202122232425262728293031...86