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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Nov 10, 2009 16:34
Comments: 611
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Don't Forget the Yen

Much ado about USD rebounds during falling markets, but JPY strength still outperforms USD.
 
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
15 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 19:30
@ nzvik - Don't follow EUR/USD too much - but seems room for a correction to continue depending on events, market tone ...

said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
15 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 19:30
pipped off
what they do to GBP
just an injection in production and productive asset which is a component of the currency valuation
good for export.
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 19:27
Said,
and that is exactly why eur/gbp was just bid an additional 10 pips to push eur/usd another 15. The tea leaves, as you just referenced, in the form of higher yields, are precursing a fallm in eur. n So what better time to run more stops higher on eur?
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
15 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 19:22
pipped off

given too much importance to PPT
910 is a matter of time not how.
i send you a msg with yield up over the next days that could affect the eurusd
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
15 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 19:20
@ Pipped Off

I agree but remember Keynes's ' the market can stay irrational for longer than one can stay solvent."

Fundamentally, actually, the Euro (read Germany) and U.K. have plenty of problems. Too obvious to have to explain with U.K. but German workers' subsidy now unwound, ship finance exposure, overcapaicty issues (1 in 7 Germans is employed in the auto industry), etc ...

Noted a couple of weeks ago JPM talking up the course of the Euro stockmarkets over 2010. Who knows? Certainly not JPM (only slightly less incredible than "Messrs Incredible" GS IMO). We'll find out in due time ...

"Reading the tea leaves" - that's the reason I like this site above others ... Ashraf's holistic approach and the fact that he bothers himself and gets involved ... which keeps things stimulating.

Gotta go for the mo ...
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
15 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 19:18
I think USD/JPY will weaken over the next week or two - may head into the 87/88s.
EURUSD looks likely to hit 1.47
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 19:06
Said,

Right about what? Supporting Eur over 1.45 and gold over 1150, or jpy will be sold in Asian session?

Regarding PPT, I just remember reading it somewhere in these boards. Although I believe intervention occurs daily in FX by many different entities, I am not a believer of a PPT in FX.

Now the U.S. Stock market, absolutely! PPT. In fact, they are the main reason S&P sits where it does and not at 910 where it belongs.

The U.S. recovery is solely based on the "perception" of higher stock prices. The ol' jobless recovery is a crock. Actually, it appears the tune is being changed to read that the largest economy in the world will remain in recesiion while all other economies will recover. This is the justification for trash eur and gbp to be bid higher, and mindless fundamental analysis simply pounding the table for yet even higher levels of eur and gbp, instead of reading the tea leaves as Ashraf does.
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
15 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 19:04
Not sure about the U/J tomorrow, not normally working on that timeframe ... Nonetheless I think the next couple of days will be important to determine trend - last 6 days corrective or not have we already started a downtrend? My own hunch if that U/J will drift lower over the next couple of weeks but the USD will strengthen again against others also.

About gold. I read the following in the weekend's FT. Needless to say the ramifications are quite interesting macroeconomically: "Philip Klapwijk of GFMS .... took the prize for most accurate forecaster for both gold and silver prices in the 2009 LMBA survey. ... (his) predictions for 2010 are for gold to range between USD1340 and USD990 with an average of USD1172.





said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
15 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 18:57
pipped off
u arent gonna come with the PPT like rkkasmir
lets let mother nature make things turn as they have to.

over , u might be right.
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 18:54
Look at them continuing to push eur/gbp to add another 15 pips on eur. Wasn't there someone here claiming there was a PPT driving eur/gbp to support eur levels.

Not sure I would go so far as to say there's a PPT, but obviously someone wants eur over 1.45. Must be the sovereign entity who closed the short at 1.4550 and went long.