Forum > View Topic
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Forum Topic:

Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)

Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
 
1...114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128...312
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 6, 2011 1:32
With so much already priced into the Euro regarding rate hikes, I wonder if we will be having one of those "buy the rumor, sell the news events" come post ECB.
I'd think that if the ECB rate hike goes through, it may cause a selloff in equities & commodities. Whether it continues to be a positive for the Euro (considering 75bps are priced in for the year) I dont know, but it seems that the commodity currencies might have more to loose on an ECB rate hike, if some speculative money gets out of commodities.
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
13 years ago
Apr 5, 2011 22:27
Anyone thinking about the double-top in weekly AUD/JPY? A little risky to short the AUD right now, but the chart looks promising.
Jetus
Kentucky, United States
Posts: 5
13 years ago
Apr 5, 2011 19:34
Hello Everyone;

I have started to trade the AUDUSD, and the CADUSD. My question is regarding the Australian market. While I get great news and video from bnn.ca, I have not been able to locate a similar business news website for Australia that would allow me to good news stories from that region. Anyone have any suggestions?
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Apr 5, 2011 12:11
From a purely technical perspective the nzdusd makes very nice patterns.

from the May 2010 low price mapped 5 waves up to the Nov 2010 high at 7974. What do we expect then ? We expect a correction of the entire 5 series up. From that high price has mapped a 3 wave move down which I label ABC (simple corrective) until proven otherwise. The move made symmetry with the length of C matching the length of A if we ignore the spike ending. This also coincided with the 61.8% ret fib level. Symmetry is an alert that the corrective move down is probably ended so what do we expect then ? We expect a move back up to make new highs above the 7974 2010 high.

So far it has moved up in a straight line which is not ideal for analysis. Expect some kinda correction any time soon. We need structure to be able to make projections. Straight lines are not really playing the game to give us a fair crack at the whip.

OK, now drop down from the daily chart to say 120 min and see what pattern you can see. Can you see 5 waves up on that timeframe. Remember you want to see 5 smaller waves within each of the 3 impulse up waves. Adjust your timeframe to get the clearest pattern to make a judgement. Decide at what point you might like to take a short position. You need some degree of confirmnation first that the immediate up trend is being corrected. Take your fibs for the entire move up etc etc.
Rezz
Vancouver, Canada
Posts: 53
13 years ago
Apr 5, 2011 6:29
When the NZDUSD is outperforming the Aussie in the last 2 days you know something isnt quite right, considering the 50bp rate cut in Newzealand.. All the more reasons this rally looks like extreme short covering to me... after probably (high volume) new shorts were established on the last leg down, immediately after the japan quake. Otherwise the fundamentals of New zealand (or aussie) havent suddenly improved post japan quake to have it back around 0.77. Anyone has any other insights?
fxfan
Toronto, Canada
Posts: 1
13 years ago
Apr 1, 2011 20:38
Im new to forex. Could anyone please comment on GBPNZD chart ?
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Apr 1, 2011 12:33
AUDUSD 11 positive daily candles since the 9700 low. Amazing !
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Mar 30, 2011 18:26
0132 should read 0312
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Mar 30, 2011 18:24
For AUDUSD I posted a target of 1.0132. That was a slight error, correct projection at 1.0337 which it has kissed today. Howver, its still looking pretty strong so might test the 161.8% level which should be at 1.0509
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Mar 28, 2011 11:58
Cat, I specifically avoid JPY and CHF pairs. I anticipated great volatility for JPY once the Tsunami struck. Great volatility is too dangerous for my specific trade plan. I am happy to leave that to others with bigger balls than mine :-)
Report Reply
1...114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128...312