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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 3119
Forum Topic:

Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)

Discuss Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
 
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Lawrence
Tennessee, United States
Posts: 14
13 years ago
Mar 17, 2011 4:01
Ashraf, why don't the markets perceive NOK as a "safe haven" currency. Both EUR and USD have strengthened against NOK in this crisis, but NOK is better on sovereign debt and interest rate. Ergo, safer haven. And nobody uses EUR to fund carry trade, do they? What am I missing?

Catnip, you are a fundamentals trader. Any thoughts?
Lawrence
Tennessee, United States
Posts: 14
13 years ago
Mar 17, 2011 3:50
I trade part time, so I miss most of the intra-day opportunities. So I'm out of the market for now. However, I remember seeing a few articles in the past few months saying "the carry trade is back" as if that was some sort of revelation. The carry trade is temporarily off, but it will return once Japan fears subside. Then interest differentials that have been driving AUD, NZD, and even GBP will be back in play, and CHF, USD, and JPY will be sold off once again. I expect to make nice profits when interest rate fundamentals come back into play. Until then, I'll enjoy reading everyone's posts...

BTW, Ashraf's book does a great job of explaining the carry trade, and how enormous these currency flows are. The lengths of recent candles illustrate that point well. Come to think of it, I should probably re-read those chapters while I wait for the markets to settle down.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Mar 16, 2011 11:52
USDCAD weekly stochastics extend rebound from a 10-month low (slow stochastics 9, 3, 3) testing over the 25% band, as the pair faces interim resistance at 0.9980 in order for 1.0270s to take place. Yesterdays break above 0.99 may have been short-lived but could be a sneak preview of prolonged upside in the event of a lasting close sub 1280 in SP500.

Those who have traded FX over 6-7 years ago may recall USDCADs 1-2 day lead for subsequent moves in USDX.

Ashraf
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
Mar 16, 2011 0:50
wow, aus housing starts revision last time around from -13.2% to + 13.0%
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 23:03
Australian bond futures on Tuesday were pricing a 60% chance of a rate CUT at the April meeting


Ashraf
Machiavelli
Posts: 113
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 16:32
So who wants to bet on new highs for AUD.USD within the month? LOL.
sydneyjames
Sydney, Australia
Posts: 348
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 14:06
ka chin ka chin
subway90
Posts: 1078
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 11:58
looks like downside opened up....

see it dipping to 9600 enroute to 9350/9400 in coming months..... gl/gt
sydneyjames
Sydney, Australia
Posts: 348
13 years ago
Mar 15, 2011 6:13
aud usd.... cya later mate
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Mar 11, 2011 11:25
Might finally see some disappointing CAD Jobs data?

CANADA JOBS due at noon GMT exp +23K from +69K and unemp rate 7.7% from 7.8% allows the potential for 0.9820s in USDCAD.

Ashraf
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