Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)

For AUDUSD potential resistance in uncharted waters.

If we take the last swing down to be from 1.0200 high to 0.9702 low a very common reversal target to new high is 127% external retracement which would be @ 1.0312. (hit today). Beyond that the 161.8% external ret lies at 1.0478 but the 127% is often favourite for good reaction.

re aud fundies, I have wondered whether the japan crisis on top of their own devastating weather damage in queensland is perceived as strong for aus GDP for the next coupla years. I am dissapointed that Ashraf has not commented more on this facet but perhaps he is busy creating his new site etc. Aus stock mkts also turned back up.

AUDUSD limit sell 1,031 hit short trade runs with sl @ entry

chloe, i am not sure if fundamentals are whats keeping the AUDUSD at these elevated levels, but I am surprised it didnt maintain the dropping trendlines below 1.010 ish considering it had broken major support at 0.98 earlier, which should be a bearish signal. The market wants to frustrate the weak hands before a major reversal, but thats just my opinion.
I calculate a 5.7% gain from the 0.974 area to 1.0295 without much correction which is very odd. Even the canadian dollar which had more reason to stay high with high oil, hasnt gone above its earlier highs in such a fashion. So i have feeling that the AudUsd rise is because of 1) volume being very light, and 2) many longs in EURAUD closing positions.. the chart from 1.425 to 1.3690 is telling somehow.

dave...

very true... should i say words of wisdom? :)
i'm sure everyone had their share of bad experiences financially and pyscholgically...
to become a consistent trader... one must invest a lot of effort, time and money...
i admit... my first five years looking back was really horrible... the next five years was combination of good and bad.... i thought i started to understand the market and consistently increased my capital until boom.... losing several months of hard work in a day or week... a roller coaster ride up and down.... only now i can say that i'm really consistently increasing my capital and the past three years have been good to me... learned that discipline and patience would go a long way....

from my 13 years of trading... it's hard to believe the words of some ego maniacs claiming to know everything... our best example would be CAT.... :)

good luck traders!