Archived IMT (2008.11.18)

Bigger than expected decline in UK CPI and heightened selling in US equity futures is further dragging GBPUSD from its $1.50 base. UK October CPI contracted 0.2% m/m vs. expectations of +0.1%. The year-on-year figure slowed to 4.5% vs. expectations of 4.8% from previous 5.2%, showing the first decline in annual inflation in over a year. The decline in core annual CPI to 1.9% from 2.2% vs. expectations of 2.2% also highlights the depth of disinflation, opening the door for as much as a 50-bp rate cut next month and enforcing GBP bears into prolonged selling. Interim target stands at ... REST OF ANALYSIS AVAILABLE TO SUBSCRIBERS of INTRADAY THOUGHTS.