Intraday Market Thoughts

German Manuf PMI Contracts Further, BoE Minutes Due

by Kyle Morrison
Nov 23, 2011 8:35

Bank of England minutes could indicate further easing intentions, German services PMI contracts further, Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI contracts to 38-month lows, US weekly jobless and durable goods orders also due.

The latest release of the Bank of England minutes could well give clues about the likelihood of further monetary easing between now and the end of this year. There could well have been discussion about adding further to the 75bn worth of asset purchases announced in October. Adam Posen is likely to be keen to go down that route given his recent remarks about the Fed and the ECB. His mantra appears to be if it moves print it. He could find an ally in deputy governor Charles Bean, and maybe some others, like Martin Weale.

Nov flash Nov manufacturing PMI further contracted to 47.9 from 49.1, Flash services PMI edged up to 51.4 from Oct 50.6. Eurozone industrial orders for September are also expected to slip back 2.7%.

Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI data for November slid back sharply into contraction territory down from the previous 51.1 to 48 renewing fears of a slowdown in China. The surveys manufacturing output Index was also weaker, coming in at 46.7, a 32-month low. With investors already nervous about the situation in Europe this setback sent Asia markets lower.

Yesterday's FOMC minutes didnt add much to the QE debate, while the downward revision in Q3 GDP from 2.5% to 2% could well make some policymakers more nervous than usual.

In economic data out today US durable goods orders for October are expected to slip back further, while weekly jobless claims are expected to continue to come in under 400k, in line with last weeks better than expected 388k.

 
 

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