Awaiting IFO, UK GDP Revision

Turning to Germanys IFO seen down for 5th straight month, UK Q3 GDP seen remaining +0.5%, but CBI industrial orders may disappoint.

Closed US markets in observance of Thanksgiving will not prevent the European timetable from issuing a flurry of data and events, especially after yesterdays disappointing bond auction, which saw Germany fail to get away about one third of the funds to external buyers. As a shot across the bows that the Eurozone crisis has entered a dangerous new phase it was pretty effective and extremely concerning.

German Q3 GDP was unrevised at 0.5% Q/Q; 2.6% y/y

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Yesterdays disappointing manufacturing PMI seems to suggest the German economy is stagnating at best while todays key data point will be the IFO readings for November which are expected to fall for the fifth month in a row. German IFO expectations for November are expected to slip back further from the last reading of 97 to 96, while the business climate index is expected to drop from 106.4 to 105.5 and the lowest levels since March 2010.

Todays release of preliminary UK Q3 GDP is expected to remain at 0.5%, but it will be business investment which will bear most scrutiny, with traders looking for evidence that companies are not scaling back. The most current data will be the industrial orders data for November and this is not likely to offer much comfort with expectations of a figure of -19, down from the previous -18.