Euro Hits New Years Low, Weak UK Data Punish GBP

BoJ does not budge on QE as MPCs Miles only member calling for more easing; MPC Bean dovish remarks; UK retail sales declined. Market turns to Canadian retail sales, Eurozone indicators and US new home sales. Yen once again the strongest currency of the day on a classic risk-off day despite BoJs easing efforts. Sterling loses further ground on more UK data weakness, which is what we warned about in our Monday Intermarket Insights, making GBP data and Weekly/Monthly charts as the centerpiece of the analysis/trades. We have provided the link to the GBPUSD W&M Premium charts (open access) at the end of this IMT.

USD rally that started yesterday on former Greek PM comments that Eurozone exit is being considered continued today as the greenback pushed higher across the board except JPY. European equities are losing nearly 2% and the relative strength winner is JPY while AUD lags.

JPY strengthened after the BoJ kept the overnight call rate below 0.1% and did not announce any new monetary easing. The BOJ governor Shirakawa reiterated his views on continued powerful easing and ending deflation. USDJPY trades around 79.45 while EURJPY dropped to 100.15.

The MPC meeting minutes showed that David Miles was the only member that voted for additional GBP 25 bln easing. Given that Adam Posen reconsidered his position; that the IMF urged additional easing and that the MPC member Charles Bean said in today's speech that the commission may need to restart QE if the economy deteriorates, the next MPC meeting on June 7th is shaping to be an interesting one.

UK data disappointed again today sending GBPUSD to 1.5675. April retail sales declined 2.3% m/m which was the most in more than 2 years while the annual figure printed -1.1%. CBI order expectations fell to -17 in May from previous -8.

The fact that the EU economic summit is now referred to as "informal dinner" suggests that it is unlikely to bring any breakthroughs as the key topic creation of Eurobonds is not likely to be resolved.

The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with Canadian retail sales that are seen higher in April at 0.4% from previous -0.2%. Core sales are expected to remain at 0.5%. Leading indicators are due at the same time and are anticipated to grow 0.3% in April from previous 0.4%.

New home sales that are due at 10:00 am ET are seen higher in April at 335K from March's 328K.

Remaining trades in Mondays Premiumk Intermarket Insights include USDCAD, gold an oil. Open access to those GBPUSD charts from Mondays Insights. http://www.ashraflaidi.com/content/images/p_sub01/Cable%20May%2021%20W%20&%20M.JPG_640W.gif Direct Access to the latest Insights is found here: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=638