Intraday Market Thoughts

Crude Drop Pulls Down Risk

by Adam Button
Sep 17, 2012 21:09

A mysterious drop in oil prices spilled over to risks assets in US trading. The pound was the top performer on the day while the Aussie lagged. The RBA minutes and Chinese housing prices are the highlights of Asia-Pacific trading. Find out which of the 3 premium trades remain in progress and the technical and fundamental rationale laid out for them below.

Trading was choppy to start the week but the moves were by-and-large small. The euro, sterling and USD/JPY all broke their recent highs in US trading.

A soft Empire Fed manufacturing survey and a rumor that Japan checked rates filtered through the market. The NY manufacturing indicator fell to -10.41 compared to -2 expected, in the first sign that the manufacturing slump has extended to September.

European leaders continued to press Spain to accept aid conditions and the market is showing the first signs of worry as Spanish 10-year yields rose back above 6%.

Trading was quiet in late US trading until a sudden drop in Brent oil prices sparked a round of risk aversion. Theories pointed to broken algos, fat fingers or an imminent SPR release. The later was denied and the other theories were also lacking.

The takeaway from the move might have been the lack of a meaningful bounce, suggesting minimal appetite for risk assets.

At 2130 GMT, the RBA releases the minutes of the latest meeting. The statement was less-dovish than the market was expecting and helped to propel the Australian dollar to the recent highs. The minutes may contain more color on risks to the outlook and expand on some of the problems facing China.

At the same time, China releases data on August housing prices.

At 2300 GMT, RBA assistant governor Debelle will be the first Australian central bank to speak since the Fed announced QE3.

From our Pre-Fed Premium Insights, 1 EURUSD hit all targets and the other unfilled. 1 GBPUSD hot all targets, the other in progress. CADJPY hit all targets, 1 gold all done, the other in progress. Both USDJPY positions in progress. Neither US crude not AUDUSD long were filled. Click here to find out the extent to those trades currently in progress and the rational to placing them last week: Non Subscribers please click here:



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