Intraday Market Thoughts

Awaiting ECB Conference & FOMC Minutes

by Patrik Urban
Oct 4, 2012 12:11

AUD retail sales rose; no change from BOE. ECB decision and press conference, along with jobless claims and FOMC minutes are next. Ashraf is back from Asia and his Live Webinar is tonight at 4 pm EST, 9pm London. Link is below.

Markets are trading within narrow ranges in the ongoing session and the greenback is slightly against most majors. European equities are barely changed.

The Aussie regained part of recent losses after August retail sales rose 0.2% after a 0.8% decline seen in the prior month. AUDUSD trades higher around 1.0215 after falling as low as 1.0181.

The BOE kept the official bank rate unchanged at 0.5% and left the asset purchase facility at GBP 375 bln in line with expectations. Halifax HPI declined 0.4% in September, the same rate of a decrease as in August. GBPUSD trades around 1.6115

The ECB will announce its rate decision at 7:45 am ET. One month after the OMT program was announced the minimum bid rate is most likely to remain steady at 0.75% and there will not be any new easing program announced. The situation in Spain is likely to dominate the press conference that starts at 8:30 am. EURUSD trades around 1.2945

The US session begins at 8:30 am ET with the ECB press conference along with jobless claims that are seen higher at 371K after falling to 359K last week. Factory orders are due at 10:00 am and they are expected to drop 6% in August after rising 2.8% in July. Canadian Ivey PMI that is due at the same time is anticipated to slow to 59.2 from previous 62.5.

The key event of the session is the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting at 2:00 pm. Three weeks after QE3 was announced, the market will search for clues what the FED might do after the Operation Twist is completed and also if other non standard policy measures were discussed.




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