Intraday Market Thoughts

GBPUSD Under Pressure; UK Data Disappoints

by Patrik Urban
Oct 9, 2012 13:01

Ecofin meeting continues; IMF lowers growth forecasts; Draghi's testimony; UK industrial production declines further. US session brings second tier releases. A recording of Ashraf's Thursday webinar previewing NFP and charting his insights on FX, gold, silver and S&P500 is found below at the bottom paragraph.

Market sentiment deteriorated significantly after London traders got to their desks. USD gained across the board and the common currency fell from 1.2980s to 1.2907. The buck lost some of its gains but still trades stronger across the board except JPY.

Yesterday's Ecofin meeting in Brussels did not bring anything significant. The meeting continues today so trading could be impacted by headlines and rumors. Noteworthy is also chancellor Merkel's visit to Athens where she meets the PM Samaras. Meanwhile, the IMF cut its global growth forecasts and sees alarmingly high risk of a deeper slump as the EZ crisis intensifies, Bloomberg reports.

In a testimony before the economic committee of the European parliament, the ECB president Draghi said that the ECB will not print money to replace lack of government action. He also said that the ECB is thinking about publishing minutes of meetings.

The GBP has weakened significantly over the past two days and given today's data, there is a scope for further losses. Industrial production declined additional 1.2% in August from -0.8% y/y while manufacturing production fell 1.2% from previous -0.7% y/y. Monthly figures also disappointed. GBPUSD fell to 1.6001 and now trades around 1.6020.

The data calendar for the US session is light today. Canadian housing starts are due at 8:15 am ET and they are expected to decline to 201K in September from previous 224.9K. At 10:00 am NIESR will release its UK GDP estimate for September and US IBD/TIPP economic optimism index for October is seen higher at 52.3 from previous 51.8.

A recording of my Thursday webinar previewing the NFP and giving my insights on FX, equities and commodities is dound here:


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