Intraday Market Thoughts

US ISM Manufacturing Ahead

by Patrik Urban
Dec 3, 2012 13:08

EFSF/ESM downgrade; Merkel suggest Greek debt write off but government denies; EZ and German PMI unrevised; Swiss retail sales slow and PMI rises; UK manufacturing PMI rose. Market awaits ISM manufacturing and Eurogroup meeting. Both EURUSD trades hit all targets. See more below.

The common currency ignored the EFSF/ESM downgrade by Moody's to Aa1 from Aaa and pushed to fresh recent highs 1.3048. The greenback is weaker across the board and European equities are gaining around 0.8%

Bloomberg reports that chancellor Merkel opened the possibility of a write off on Greek debt. She supposedly said yesterday that euro leaders might considerate it once Greece has a budget surplus. Germany ruled out such scenario until now. However, German government official denied today that a write off was signaled.

European data showed that Spanish manufacturing PMI rose to 45.3 from 43.5 while Eurozone and German final manufacturing PMI's were unrevised at 46.2 and 46.8 respectively.

The manufacturing sector in the UK contracted for the 7th time in a row but the rate of contraction slowed as the PMI index rose to 49.1 in November from previous 47.5. GBPUSD trades around 1.6060.

In other news, Swiss retail sales slowed in October to 2.7% from 5.0% y/y while November SVME PMI rose to 48.5 from 46.1. Greek Public Debt Management Agency announced that it would buy back EUR 10 bln in bonds with bids due on 12/07 and the settlement on 12/17.

The sole item on the US data calendar is the ISM manufacturing index at 10:00 am ET that is expected to decline slightly in November to 51.5 from previous 51.7. The manufacturing sector expanded twice in a row after three months of contraction. The next risk event is Eurogroup meeting that begins at 16:00 GMT (11:00 am ET).

Both EURUSD trades hit all targets. For DIRECT ACCESS to these trades and the relevant charts, click here: NonSubscribers Can click here to join:


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