Intraday Market Thoughts

BoC Stays Hawkish, EUR at 1.31

by Patrik Urban
Dec 4, 2012 15:55

RBA cuts to 3.0%; UK construction PMI falls; negative interest on CHF deposits; EZ PPI slowed. BOC maintained hawkish indication. NY ISM rises by 6 pts. See rest of last nights Premium Insights below. GBPUSD hits 1.6120, making 2/2 in GBPUSD for 4 consecutive weeks.

USD gives up earlier gains in the ongoing session. AUDUSD initially moved lower to 1.0408 after the RBA cut the cash rate by 25 bp to 3.0% which is the level last seen during 2009. However, the pair bounced sharply higher to 1.0470 on a hawkish statement that followed. Economists forecasts that further cuts are unlikely until Q2 2013.

In the UK, construction PMI dipped back below the 50 level to 49.3 in November from October's 50.9. Confidence in business outlook is the lowest in nearly four years and new orders fell at the sharpest pace since 4/2009. GBPUSD trades around 1.6120.

EURCHF continues to push higher on yesterday's announcement from Credit Suisse that it will impose negative interest on CHF holdings above 100M from December 10th, WSJ reports. EURCHF session high is 1.2142 and the rate eased a bit after clarification was provided that the negative rate will be set on individual basis.

In other news, Eurozone PPI slowed to 2.6% in October from previous 2.7% and Spanish unemployment rose 74.3K in November from prior 128.2K

The Bank of Canadas decision to hold rates at 1.0% maintained the bias towards higher rates in the future. It indicated :Over time, some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will likely be required, consistent with achieving the 2 percent inflation target.

Nov ISM-NY Business Conditions rose to 52.5 from 45.9 in Oct. The future

optimism index showed the largest 1-month gain on record.

Last nights NEW PREMIUM INSIGHTS edition went long AUDUSD despite anticipating the RBA cut, eyeing 1.05. Latest Insights also have new calls on EURUSD (2), GBPUSD (2), EURJPY (2), CADJPY (1), EURGBP (2), Gold (2), Silver (2), US Crude CL_F (2). DIRECT ACCESS here http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=697 Non subscribers can click here: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/

 
 

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