Intraday Market Thoughts

ECB and OPEC in Focus

by Adam Button
Nov 24, 2014 22:41

The ECB and OPEC are feeling pressure to act as the Eurozone economy and oil prices slide. To start the week, the euro was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged. The minutes of the key Oct 31 BOJ meeting and a speech from Kuroda are due later.  GBP traders await another appearance tomorrow from Bank of England governor Carney and some of his MPC colleagues on last week's inflation report. EURGBP also awaits the BoE, while the and USDCAD trade awaits key Canada retail sales and the OPEC decision later in the week.

The ECB meeting on Dec 4 and the OPEC decision on Thursday are filled with uncertainty. Draghi hinted he was open to more action on Friday but Weidmann and Nowotny preached patience on Monday to boost the euro.

Despite the euro gains, EUR/USD and EUR/JPY failed to breach the 61.8% retracements of the large falls on Friday. Goldman Sachs revised its call on ECB sovereign QE to include a better than 50/50 chance of in the first half of 2015. However, many market watchers want a stronger hint sooner.

Coeure said sovereign bond buys should be up for discussion next week and with that kind of talk the ECB risks backing itself into a corner.

OPEC has been reluctant to fan the flames of supply-cut talk. Venezuela and others have been pushing for supply cuts but the Saudis appear reluctant. The Saudi Arabian oil minister arrived in Vienna for the meeting on Thursday and was dismissive to oversupply concerns and his comments led to oil price declines.

The US economic calendar was light to start the week and it will be light to end the week with the US Thanksgiving holiday on Tuesday. In the middle, however, there are GDP and durable goods reports over the coming two days.

But first, traders will be watching out for headlines from the Oct 31 BOJ minutes at 2350 GMT. That's the meeting where the surprise QE announcement was made. If any clarification is needed, Kuroda speaks at 0100 GMT. Be careful for comments that indicate worry about the swift decline in the yen.

Act Exp Prev GMT
RBA Deputy Governor Lowe Speech
Nov 25 9:05
Retail Sales (SEP) (m/m)
0.5% -0.3% Nov 25 13:30
Retail Sales ex Autos (SEP) (m/m)
0.4% -0.3% Nov 25 13:30
GDP Annualized (Q3) [P]
3.3% 3.5% Nov 25 13:30
GDP Price Index (Q3) [P]
1.3% 2.1% Nov 25 13:30

Latest IMTs