Intraday Market Thoughts

No Signs of US Economic Improvement in Data

by Adam Button
Sep 24, 2013 21:57

US data was soft on Tuesday and that kept earlier USD gains to a minimum. The dollar made slight gains across the board and the high-flying kiwi was cut down. Australian job vacancies and Japanese small business confidence highlight a quiet calendar.

The US dollar headed into New York trading with some momentum but it stalled after middling economic data. Consumer confidence slipped to 79.7 from 81.8 in the previous month. The Richmond Fed was flat compared to a +12 reading expected.

Shortly after the data, USD/JPY fell to a session low of 99.48. Treasuries were also heavily bid in the session with 10-year yields falling to a five-week low of 2.65%.

Overall, the market struggled for direction. USD/JPY rebounded to 99.00 as stocks showed some buoyancy midway through the session and then fell back to 98.73 as the S&P 500 closed down 0.3% and below the psychological 1700 level.

The Canadian dollar got a momentary lift from stronger retail sales for August but there was no appetite to push USD/CAD below 1.0270 and the pair quickly rebounded above 1.0300. It's a sign that the downtrend might be nearing exhaustion.

In the upcoming session, the New Zealand dollar could take a further hit on trade balance figures at 22:45 GMT. NZD/USD was the only significant mover on the day and the break comes after three days of malaise, a technical pattern that often signals a larger move.

Later, at 0100 GMT, the focus shifts to the DEWR skilled vacancy report for Australia. In August, vacancies rose 0.7%. At 0500 GMT, Japan releases the report on small business confidence for September. The prior reading was 49.7. It's unlikely either report will leave a lasting impression on markets. Instead, look towards US durable goods orders later.

In this week's new Pemium edition, we added 1 new GBPUSD trade to the existing trade with new note on EURUSD to reconfirm the existing positions and bias with 3 new charts (EURUSD Monthly, GBPUSD Weekly & Monthly). In the case of EURUSD, even though the monthly crossing of the 55 & 100 MMAs is similar to February's monthly candle, the momentum signals imply a very different picture from 7 months ago.
Act Exp Prev GMT
Retail Sales (JUL) (m/m)
0.6% 0.6% -0.6% Sep 24 12:30
Retail Sales ex Autos (JUL) (m/m)
1.0% 0.6% -0.9% Sep 24 12:30
Trade Balance (AUG) (m/m)
$-743M $-774M Sep 24 22:45
Trade Balance (AUG) (y/y)
$-1.62B $-1.69B Sep 24 22:45
Durable Goods Orders (AUG)
0.2% -7.3% Sep 25 12:30
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (AUG)
1.0% -0.6% Sep 25 12:30
CB Consumer Confidence (SEP)
79.7 79.8 81.8 Sep 24 14:00
Richmond Manufacturing Index
0 17 14 Sep 24 14:00

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