Article Archives (2015)

Displaying Articles written in 2015
  • Fed Tightening Cycles & USD Performance Chart

    Fed Tightening Cycles & USD Performance

    Sep 7, 2015 15:53 | by Ashraf Laidi | 70 Comments
    Is the peak of the US dollar behind us?  Depending on your USD measure of choice, the dollar may have already peaked, when using EUR and JPY, the two largest and most liquid currencies...
  • Gold/SPX Ratio's Boom-Bust Pattern

    Jul 20, 2015 13:08 | by Ashraf Laidi
    Gold's tumble to a 5-year low today is the latest manifestation of the ensuing crash in global commodities.
  • Intermarket convergence: Bunds, Oil, USD, EUR

    May 22, 2015 8:05 | by Ashraf Laidi
    The latest technical picture in intermarket dynamics suggests the USD is not yet ready to regain the positive momentum of the recent months, but the stabilisation path for oil, euro, bond yieds...
  • The Best UK Election Scenario for Gilts  Chart

    The Best UK Election Scenario for Gilts

    Apr 30, 2015 15:29 | by Ashraf Laidi
    As we assess the impact of the UK general election on UK government bonds (gilts), it is important to tackle the prospects for inflation/deflation, earnings growth, austerity as well as the...
  • USD/JPY & oil M&As recall the late 1990s Chart

    USD/JPY & oil M&As recall the late 1990s

    Apr 9, 2015 20:47 | by Ashraf Laidi
    The growing parallels between 2015 and 1998 among global market forces (soaring US dollar, plummeting oil prices, rising equities, escalating market volatility and flattening US yield curve)...
  • Euro hits $1.10 as ECB kicks off QE

    Mar 5, 2015 16:22 | by Ashraf Laidi
    The euro currency had short-lived rally off its latest 11-year lows when the ECB revised its 2015 GDP forecasts to 1.5% from December's 1.0% and upgrading its 2016 growth view to 1.9% from the...
  • UK jobs, earnings fire up sterling

    Feb 18, 2015 14:03 | by Ashraf Laidi
    The positives of the UK jobs figures are broad-based as the unemployment rate –measured by the ILO– dropped for the 3rd straight month to reaching 5.7%–its lowest since August...
  •  China’s crashing imports assure more CNY depreciation Chart

    China’s crashing imports assure more CNY depreciation

    Feb 9, 2015 17:09 | by Ashraf Laidi
    The 19% y/y slump in China's trade was the biggest decline since May 2009 and the seventh decrease over the last 12 months.  The plunge in imports was the primary driver behind the new...
  • Beware of Back-to-back January declines in stocks Chart

    Beware of Back-to-back January declines in stocks

    Jan 30, 2015 16:32 | by Ashraf Laidi
    January will most likely be negative for US stock indices (S&P500), and will be the 2nd consecutive year of negative January performance.
  • SNB miscalculates by dropping currency ceiling

    Jan 15, 2015 14:12 | by Ashraf Laidi
    The Swiss National Bank's decision to abandon its four-year-old EUR/CHF peg at 1.2000 is a stark reminder that in today's deflation-bound, zero interest rate world, capital appreciation exceeds...
  • Copper growth stopper – Another 15% decline?

    Jan 14, 2015 16:11 | by Ashraf Laidi
    Today's 4.3% slump in copper is the ninth consecutive daily decline in the metal, a pattern last seen 11 months ago during the peak of China's financing shenanigans — when Chinese...

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