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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jun 24, 2009 14:06
Comments: 182
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This thread was started in response to the Hot-Chart:

USDJPY 4-week Cycles

 
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cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jul 1, 2009 15:53
Precariously close to breakdown.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 1, 2009 15:26
And to spell it down further, the 4week channel of USDCAD means the bottom of that channel is at 1.1410 according to CMC charts, but 1.1380 according to Reuters ansd 1.1350 according to Bloomberg.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 1, 2009 15:19
Gunjack, yes indeed. thats why i said last week it's BETTER to short USDJPY and long USDCAD than to sinply short CADJPY. I know USDJPY has not fallen to the lows i had expected for this week, but the resistance at 97.10-20 remains intact as i warned yesterday.

FOR THOSE WHO TRADE USDCAD, you MUST be aware by now of the Channel extending from early June, which i have referred to time and time again....

Ashraf
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
15 years ago
Jul 1, 2009 15:03
Hi Ashraf - Do you think short USD/JPY and long USD/CAD are good hedges for each other?

thx
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 1, 2009 14:16
Hamish, "Blown off your chart"?? are you using a 5 or 10 minute chart??? As i said in my tweet, the UP CHANNEL remains intact since June 2 and its interim support stands at 1.1450, with the bottom of the channel at 1.1410. Still look for USDCAD to regain 1.1630 and 1.1740.. but if you want to play the short now, you could see 1.1430.

Ashraf
hamish
vancouver, Canada
Posts: 26
15 years ago
Jul 1, 2009 14:13
Hi again! CAD has been blown off my chart!!..........Can we expect a short entry soon, if so where any insights?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 1, 2009 13:15
raj, i still think the market is heading lower from here. if we do break above 97.20 then USDJPY may test 97.80 like you said. if payrolls and unemp are BOTH on the negative side, then id expect kneejerk reaction to be USD negative only for later to see a rebound as stocks fall. Thats what happened last time but it took a while for reaction to come through as payrolls was better than exp. See my IMT ARCHIVE from the last report

Ashraf
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
15 years ago
Jul 1, 2009 11:58
Ashraf,
do you think USDJPY is now heading for another rally towards 9780-9800 range and EUROUSD for 1.4230 range prior to ECB and NFP...?And if NFP comes out with some lower number with higher unemployment rate then how the market will digest that?
regards,
Rajib.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 1, 2009 10:25
hamish, no USDCAD would NOT plunge to 1.05 if S&P reaches 930 because S&P is CLOSER to it than where USDCAD and USDJPY are. If we do see 960 in the S&P w/in next weeks (HIGHLY UNLIKELY) then that may drive USDCAD towards 1.08 or 1.07 and USDJPY around 101 but latter is uncertain because we could see broad USD weakness if appetite picks up that much.

SP shows H&S formation with rignht shoulder (resistance) at 933-935 so we should be testing 880 before end of July.

Ashraf
hamish
vancouver, Canada
Posts: 26
15 years ago
Jul 1, 2009 9:57
Hi,Ashraf, if S&P breaks out 930 then 960 (likely, since both weekly & daily charts show strong uptrends) Does CAD trade around 1.05 & JPY 110 ? You mentioned small volumes do they really skew prices?
Lastly do you have a handle on S&P, what would be your short term prediction?
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