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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jun 24, 2009 14:06
Comments: 182
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This thread was started in response to the Hot-Chart:

USDJPY 4-week Cycles

Brussels, Belgium
Posts: 25
12 years ago
Jul 23, 2009 18:00
Hello Steven, I'm sure quite a few people share your pain (myself included)...downward channel is intact and the hourly USDJPY was looking pretty good but then moved back up... I have a feeling we'll have to wait until the end of US trading to have a better idea of what will happen during the Asian session... Good Luck!

Steven Blyth
London, UK
Posts: 148
12 years ago
Jul 23, 2009 17:51
Probably a good time to short USD/JPY according to the downward channel on the daily. (Consensus is Dollar loosing ground to Yen and seems to be the safer play)

Anyone else got caught on the wrong side?

From my side: What was supposed to be a short term AUS/JPY, GBP/JPY short ended up going the wrong way and now am looking at a lot of red (We are talking 10p a pip here so its not excruciating - yet) The sense i'm getting is that we are probably going down from here in the short term and then moving up towards the end of the year with projections of Cable at 175 and EuroUSD in the 150's.

So assuming we are heading lower in the short term, When do i exit my shorts?

Currently im short on these:
AUS/NZD (Feel relatively confident on this short)
USD/JPY (Feel relatively confident on this short)

Probably too much here.

Thoughts from all?

Best to all,

Thoughts anyone?
United States
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Jul 23, 2009 17:18

I am curious also about yout JPY outlook for Friday.

Would you please comment whether you have you changed your outlook for GBPJPY = 152 on Friday? GBPJPY is at nearly 157 today and I am wondering if your outlook earlier to short and target 152/151.50 is still something you feel strongly about?


Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 39
12 years ago
Jul 23, 2009 15:42
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Jul 23, 2009 15:05
Jack, yes, new issue of Toshin bonds (foreign-denominated bonds issued for Japns investors) could be used for them to purchase higher yielding currencies. This could prop USDJPY towards 95.20s but teh realy impact remains equities. Btw, events such as Japanese repatriation of coupons from US treasuries have not always proven JPY positive so careful with these developments.

United States
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Jul 23, 2009 13:54
Dear Ashraf,

Can you please look back at prior Toshin Japanese investment days? I am wondering how much of an upward bounce to the USD JPY pair can we expect whenever these Toshins open. That is there is an expectation currently that the Yen will devalue temporarily whenever these Toshins (every 3 months?) start as massive amount of Yen used to buy higher yielding currencies in just a few day period.

Hope I make sense.

Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
12 years ago
Jul 22, 2009 15:35
Hey, Mo
I have sent to you..........have you received??
liverpool, UK
Posts: 123
12 years ago
Jul 22, 2009 0:46
Hey Qin
Sorry I was out all day yesterday,, yes you can send me the report into my email address

Kind regard
Jonkoping, Sweden
Posts: 492
12 years ago
Jul 21, 2009 12:22
Hey, Mo
I got a summer report from DBFX which was issued on May...

It said target EUR/USD to 1.50 ....

I don't know if I should trust it or really make me confuse on the FX market....directionless......

If you want I can send to you.......

Best regards

Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Jul 20, 2009 19:05
Hey, Mo
Norway is a very beautiful country.......I love it so much....Norwegian are very nice to foreigners the way...they all speak English very well and better then Swedish....haha...

I took this trip in order to clear my mind on FX.....I was too bearish USD and GBP, and thought they would collapse.......I have changed my mind a little bit at least in a very near term.

I have the same feeling as you now, think GBP will down again soon....BOE will print more money soon.....
I am thinking join your short on GBP/USD now.....but not today....maybe tomorrow....still need a good sleep...

Best regards