Forum > View Topic (Analytic)
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:
Speculators' Futures FX Positions
The weekly figures on traders' futures commitments obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's International Monetary Market shed valuable light on the developing flows pursuing one currency versus another.
Thanks v/ much. But just as all successes are collective (and failures individual), this success had your share of contribution in it (even if you don't realise).
Last week, you wrote s/thing that was new to me. Remember you wrote s/thing about weekend covering (shorts)? I honestly didn't know about such a phenomenon! While I was largely driven by common sense (more than technical and fundamental analysis), it was your weekend covering explanation that gave me extra confidence to kill it.
AS SUCH FXHandler...expect the markets to sneak above 70 a bit...fluctuate...and then follow the (logical) path downward! But a SURE short (I believe!) will be witnessed by the Footsie - the only market to have stayed (barely) positive.
CAVEAT: Did anyone notice Russia saying that 'refrain from any talk of attack on Iran'? What does this mean? :) As I always say...PUT your stops/limits thinking about the Israel/Natanz scanario at night...
Ashraf
We will see. Have a good weekend Asad, Hope you enjoy your gains!
Even tough... your extreme profit, you must have been very sure about your trading. I am impressed about 457%! WOW.... that is huge!
In hindsight, it wasn't very difficult was it? Ashraf, you tell. Oil had been static b/w 72 and 72.50 for quite a while. Given the oil news in the past two days,i t could either have broken 73 and then headed towards 80...or broken 71 and headed to 65.
Once it broke 71, you could TELL that there wasn't ANYTHING positive left in oil. And now I realise that this is why it shot down from 71 to 69s because everything was thinking what I was thinking (above). Covering the shorts was hereon an icing on the cake! :)
As I wrote, I went berserk when it broke 71...and I continued to add short positions as oil fell...to the extent that by the time the price reached 69.50...EVERY penny in my a/c was short on oil!
I really REALLY had to swear/force/will myself EVEN to cover my positions here because, naturally...greed set in...and I wanted EVEN more (less) than 69.43!! But I closed the trade...slammed the notebook shut...and ran out of the room w/in split seconds. Believe me, it was surreal!
Technicals and fundamentals OUT OF THE WINDOW!! Just common sense.
- All positions being taken above $72 MUST have been short - what we saw this evening was a covering frenzy (hence, Monday will see the price in the late 70s)
- OPEC (maintain crude level), IEA (decrease in inventory) And China industrial (positive growth) updates were ALREADY priced in oil last night by 0300 GMT and YET oil stood frozen at 72.30. Why? Why didn't it run away to 73, 73.50, 74 - all news had pointed towards it. If it did not, there was ONLY one way - DOWN!
- With all the positive news gone, a correction was inevitable. I wrote last night that world markets would correct themselves starting from JAPAN...UK...US. Only the UK survived - barely!
I'm no analyst...but the rut begins Monday. Short Footise and you make make money over quick -35!
NOT being cocky...but I'll just allow my emotion to take over for a bit! I...made...457%...on my last trade!! EEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!! :D
I got a delta of 3.17...and during the last $1.50 on way down (when I had pocketed sufficiently), I put EVERYTHING in the a/c on the short side - SHIT OR BUST!! But it wasn't easy. I snapped quite a bit. DID you guys notice the gapping taking place like a drunken monkey swinging trees!!
But I'm humble enough to realise that such trades require timing, luck and well...luck! I do NOT expect to repeat this again (unless, ofcourse, I become big enough to manipulate).
I expect Monday to touch above 70...and then my beloved target of 66.80. Whether or not I'll play (or I even need to play), don't know...
Thanks, yes I meant long NOK/JPY, but I am really not sure it will be such a good idea before the next leg down, concerning Shangai Index... and oil drop. Anyway, long term, NOK will win. 15? Ok, I might get in then on 15, depending on if the oil have bottomed at that time.
Hope NOK/JPY will not drop to last year record 12.23. All time drop is still 11.613 in January 2000.
Steven,
No problem. Yes, more investments in oil will occur if we get a change in leadership. But I am not sure if there will be a change in the leadership. Also a shift in the government might not be so bullish for the NOK, cause of higher spending from the oil-bonds, investors might get abit scared....
It will be interesting to see.