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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Aug 21, 2008 1:37
Comments: 525
View Analytic
This thread was started in response to the Analytic:

Speculators' Futures FX Positions

The weekly figures on traders' futures commitments obtained from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's International Monetary Market shed valuable light on the developing flows pursuing one currency versus another.
 
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Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Nov 18, 2009 1:01
Zafer, but dont forget many jpns exporters have plants outside japan to counter the cost of the rising yen.

Maria, look at AUDJPY daily stochastics (9,3,3). Not only the price action shows a LOWER DOUBLE TOP, but also falling oscillators. Connect the trend line support from Oct 2 low thru Nov 1 and trend line resistance from Oct 23 high thru Nov 12 and u get wedge (triangle) that is potentially bearish.

Ashraf
Maria
Juarez, Mexico
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 17, 2009 22:58
Hola Ashraf: How is your sentiment for the AUDJPY these days? It seem to have bounce of the support near 83 today. I always don't know how this pair going to act. Have a mind of it own as they say...what is your out look?
ZAFER
Manchester, UK
Posts: 3
15 years ago
Nov 17, 2009 15:39
Many thanks Ashraf. Yes, I agree, the fiscal position in the US and UK is relatively worse. With their trade surplus likely to continue to provide some cushion, one must bear in mind that Japan also owes almost all its debt to domestic buyers. The only question is whether the recovery in global demand growth would be enough to compensate for the loss in revenues and competitiveness caused by an expensive yen for Japanese corporations such as Toyota and Sony.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Nov 17, 2009 9:58
Zafer, that question has been raised before and i still said JPY will rise. US and Uk fiscal situation is worse than that of Japan. Yen strength may dissipate temporarily in early Q1.

Ashraf
ZAFER
Manchester, UK
Posts: 3
15 years ago
Nov 17, 2009 5:43
Hello Ashraf, Yen strength seems to be holding for now despite recent waves of risk appetite. However, Japan has a deteriorating fiscal position and a growing debt service charge. As reported in the media, the CDS's on Japanese bonds are getting costlier and although there is no risk of default, the fiscal situation may force the government to do some radical tightening. In light of this, do you still see yen strength going into Q1/Q2 or would it become weaker as/when the dollar finally rebounds?
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Nov 17, 2009 2:01
chloe, oil bulls should not be very optimistic with the way oil loses steam very fast despite falling USD and rising stocks. in this way, i remain a seller of CAD on the upmoves. Look how CADJPY is back towards 85. YEN strength is here to stay (result of risk appetite not as strong as pople think it is). USDCAD proved it can hold above 1.0415 low but will have to regain 1.0555-60.

Ashraf
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 17, 2009 0:35
also what do u think of sell on gbpcad i saw your response to marie gbpusd does that apply to gbpcad ?what would be a great sign to sell gbpcad with the news coming out this week..thanks
chloethebull
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 17, 2009 0:30
hey ashraf anythoughts on usdcad..im long at the moment 1.0490..so not in to bad of shape..kinda missed out on the exit when fed bernaki started his speach..i think risk appitite is stilll there but do you see anythingin next few days that could get usd moving up..an thanks for the fxstreet website love how they give me a calander of the weeks data coming out..very grateful all the best
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Nov 17, 2009 0:18
que onda maria, GBP strength broke all sorts of resistance against the damaged USD and now eyes 1.6880s. WATCH UK CPI tomorrow if it rises towards 1.4% (as expected) from 1.1% then we could see a 1.6940s.

Ashraf
Maria
Juarez, Mexico
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 16, 2009 23:53
Hola Ashraf: I wondering what is key level to watching on GBPUSD in the next days?
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