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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jun 10, 2009 18:17
Comments: 208
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Falling Equities Still Key for Dollar

Intermarket analysis set-up still suggests that fresh equity selling remains the only source of support for the US currency.
 
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14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
15 years ago
Jul 21, 2009 16:44
Ashraf,
i sold eurousd at 1.4230.Hope can have atleast sub 1.3900 in short run.
regards,
rajib
Carlco
UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 20, 2009 11:33
exactly why i am 'BEARISH' , we haven't retraced nearly enough, yet.
My reasoning is that there is no more equity led consumer credit, the whole model is broken, Japan tried exporting its way out of recession, it didn't work. So, raise interest rates America take the defaltion and unemployment hit.
However, good news for traders!, range bound for years, with tighter regulation, (hopefully weeding out the cowboy speculators and institutions) leaves trading the ranges a joy for years to come! ;)
GBPUSD dancing with 165 , could we see this get back up to test 167 this week ? 16026 & 16275 are starting to look like good support levels now.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 19, 2009 23:45
carlco, last summer, Ron Insana (he wrore the foreword in my book) and I were at a luncheon where we told attendees that US interest rates would go to zero% (back then they were 2%) and many would refuse to listen. Today. we see more stories of Japan's lost decade potentially being transposed into the US and the UK. Now, conditions are slightly less bad in the US (problems were dealt w/ earlier) but what everybody must be aware of is: compare the duration of the bear market in Japan (since peaking in 1989) and that of the US.

Ashraf
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
15 years ago
Jul 19, 2009 11:18
also, didn't these banks reporting big profits also have their rules changed a few months back on how they have to report their derivatives? no wonder we have a new 'head' forming the gov. interfered and changed the rules... 'again' . Another worrying thing i read the other day was Japans lost decade where gov. building projects had no effect on the economy, but atleast 10 years on the japanese have a LOT of very nice bridges!
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jul 19, 2009 0:04
Carlco gotcha. Agreed ,once this rally terminates the plunge should be breathtaking.
redstone
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 18, 2009 10:50
Hope this sp drops soon. Am in yen an need the cash
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
15 years ago
Jul 18, 2009 10:42
cougr, exactly my point that i can't see any technical or psychological barrier in the way after 950 is breached to goto 1000, this would be the best thing to happen as the sell off will be huge, when has a psychological level so stretched ever not been tested several times before a breach, just my thoughts...as always wishful thinking on my part more like it ;(
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jul 18, 2009 0:32
Rajesh68 ,you'll note that EURUSD moved down contrary to your expectations but shortly therafter moved back up. Markets do this all the time ie.defy our immediate expectations and trying to understand and rationalize every small movement will drive one crazy.
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jul 18, 2009 0:23
Carlco , I take your point about pe ratios being too high etc, but don't forget the old cliche about markets being able to remain irrational longer than most traders ability to remain solvent. If 950 gets taken out(and I know that's a big if ,with many out there thinking this unlikely) ,all the short covering should easily push it to 1000.
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jul 18, 2009 0:11
liked that carlco,very amusing .
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