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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jun 10, 2009 18:17
Comments: 208
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Falling Equities Still Key for Dollar

Intermarket analysis set-up still suggests that fresh equity selling remains the only source of support for the US currency.
 
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speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 10, 2009 15:21
Off the point a bit..but todays news of US Trade Deficit narrowing is also a dollar positive as typically this will reduce the amount of dollars needed to be sold to finance US consumption if the trend carries on. Whilst many importers will accept US dollars, it is still an important FX factor bearing in mind the deficits are normally HUGE on an annual basis.
Mojo
United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 10, 2009 15:17
Gentlemen,

Presently the U of Michigan's worse-than-expected consumer numbers appear to be weakening the dollar. Should we see this as an opportunity go long on the EURUSD and GBPUSD? Both show gains since 9AM EST.

Welcome your thoughts....

Regards,

Mojo.
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
15 years ago
Jul 10, 2009 14:51
Ashraf,
if S&P not take out 864,can we expect that it is going for 894 level?
regards,
Rajib.
Speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 8, 2009 12:15
yes and this recession will bring a lot of trading opportunities as we are bound to have a few more cycles here with plenty of overshooting and undershooting as the recession becomes increasingly difficult to trend and pricing of assets becomes a tough job. matters are made worse when there are so many investors predicting conflicting views.

the truth is we dont know what will exactly happen. what really upsets me is certain speculators betting on certain future events without taking into account other important issues and by just analysing on isolated factors.

one thing the longer term investor will need to get right is are we heading for general inflation or deflation - the timing is also very important. In this recession we are could quite easy get deflation and inflation in different assets all at the same time.

unemployment can quite easily reach 15% over the next couple for years in US and maybe UK.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 8, 2009 11:27
slaiman, the psychological is quite considerable indeed. Another thing is that pundits better start abandoning the notion that unemployment is a lagging indicator. it may be lagging when it goes from 4 to6% but not when it breaches 9% in an economy whose natural unemp rate is 3-4%. But i do think the damage to emerging markets is less severe this time around.

Ashraf
cougr
Australia
Posts: 101
15 years ago
Jul 8, 2009 5:16
Slaiman,good post below, for sure the healing process is only just beginning and there is a long way to go yet.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 7, 2009 18:16
I do see any wobbles around finding buyers of Dollar Government debt. It will be oversubsribed again particularly as risk aversion increases. i doubt the auction will have much impact on pairs. there are other key data that have impacted and may continue to reflect.
Mojo
United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 7, 2009 18:04
Hi All,

How do you feel the treasury auction results will affect the dollar pairs today?

Mojo.
redstone
UK
Posts: 25
15 years ago
Jul 7, 2009 18:01
Speculator, me too good luck
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 7, 2009 17:29
slaiman you are spot on. the definition of green shoots is misunderstood and misinterpreted.

carclo, im not a trader - that's old news. but i am a medium to longer term speculator.
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