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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jun 10, 2009 18:17
Comments: 208
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Falling Equities Still Key for Dollar

Intermarket analysis set-up still suggests that fresh equity selling remains the only source of support for the US currency.
 
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speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 15:02
yes TA is a tool traders use and IF all do use patterts etc this will help devise a trading pattern and trend by moving the market. But when the news (surprise) comes and changes perspectives...you can be caught as there is a rush to cover positions and potential losses. for example, how many traders could forecast the extent of collapse of the high yielders last year prior to Lehman? Ashraf did trading patterns strongly project the dollar mini bull early-mid 2008? I dont know maybe they did as im not even a chartist.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 14:47
Spec, while i would not go as far as raj in saying it is IMPOSSIBLE for Tech analysis to fail (nothing is impossible), you ought to take a pause before proclaiming the failure of the H&S formation in the S&P and take a look at my latest IMT; read it carefully, find out where the neckline was, find out where the right shoulder is, then feel free to draw conclusions. never committ the error of proclaiming the failure of something unless we see its properfailure in this case the break above the right shoulder. Im sure that the sucessful hold of the right shoulder in USDJPY at 9720 remains fresh in your memory as we repetitively warned its validity would lead to sub 92.

Ashraf
MOjo
United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 14:44
Hello Ashraf,

What catalyst do we need today to set a clear direction for dollar strength/weakness? Many USD pairs appear trapped b/w support and resistance thus far today. Your thoughts??

Mojo.
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
15 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 14:37
Hello Speculator,
I have great regards for Fundamental analysis.But its impossible for Technical Analysis to failed because technical analysis is nothing but pictorial description of what traders are doing.So if technical analysis is wrong then all the traders are at wrong side which is really impossible to think.
Regards,
Rajib.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 14:26
last 2 days is a prime example why charting cant always land you with profits. Surprises/news have changed the short term trend!!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 14:17
raj, im not sure SP will go to 934. too early to say whether the H&S has failed. 912 is the resistance.

Ashraf
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
15 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 13:03
Ashraf,
I am still holding S&P long which was initiated at 874, I already put my trailing at 890.I am waiting for Result from Goldman.Should I hold it for a bit longer time?and is it possible for SP to mark 1000 if it can break and sustain above 934?
regards,
Rajib.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 13, 2009 17:53
raj, good job, but better to look for a lower target in S&P such as max 910 as you never know what earnings going to reveal.

Ashraf
14raj
Kolkata, India
Posts: 210
15 years ago
Jul 13, 2009 16:36
Ashraf,
I bought S&P at 874 with the stop at 863.Should i hold it for long run???I am anticipating 932 again.Even long in EUROUSD( 1.3840) and USDJPY(9228).
regards,
Rajib
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jul 10, 2009 20:00
Gents, sorry been away giving a class so missed all questions. we predicted the Unv of Mich to be worse than expected (see tweets and IMTs) as was consumer confidence from Conference Board and that was somewhat USD positive due to risk aversion but negative for USDJPY WHICH REMAINS MY FAVORITE LOSE-LOSE SCENARIO AS SEEN IN THE HOTCHARTS and the latest article.

Ashraf
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