by Ashraf Laidi Posted: Jan 19, 2010 15:19 Comments: 147 View Article
This thread was started in response to the Article:
Euro's Dead Cross
EURUSD's downtrend is now confirmed after its 50-day MA has fallen below its 100-day MA, strengthening the bearish technical signal with an already deteriorating fundamental foundation.
Ashraf, besides, for me Greek CDS will fuel the risks tremendously How shall the Greek pay the debts ? you already made critical marks about that, I know
so Greek CDS will be not the solution, but the prolongation of the crisis:
cheap money was the decisive harmful Katalysator for the subprime crisis and will it be now again.
Ashraf, I would like to explain to you the most weighing problems of german economy for me. Germany shows an ancient population (over 30 % now are older than 60 years) and Harz 4 is leading into the wrong direction. Did you know that in January 2010 6,5 Mio people got Harz 4 transfer support, 1,7 Mio children under 15 years must live from this transfer. 15 Mio people with migration backgrund compensated falling birth rates since 1970 until now; The population in Germany - acording to forecasts -will shrink in the next years from 82 Mio to 74 Mio (or 60 Mio) with alwas less children and more old people.
For these reasons I d`ont belief Germany can afford so much to bailout Greece
Ashraf, there we are - no glimpse of any possibility for German loan guarantees for Greece, they rather expel greece from the EMU; I dont think the markets belief, Greece will execute their austerity program in a proper way and cannot gain confidence back. If this is presumably so, Greek will also destabilze confidence in the Euro anyway with or without aid.
Germany or the EU can help temporarily but not change greek structures and manners (behaviours)
Sie wissen doch selber am besten Bescheid ber die derzeitige Stimmung in Deutschland; der aufmacherische Film "die Grenze" und Umfragen enthalten zumindets ein Krnchen Wahrheit
Mit der Piefek Saga oder Seitenhieben auf sterreich allerdings nicht vergleichbar
Aber im Ernst: Meine Bemerkung betraf die Frage, ob Deutschland Griechenland helfen wird, davon war ich nicht berzeugt und Finanzminister Schuble hat dies kurz nach meinem Beitrag auh deutlich besttigt und von gezielter Fehlinformation gesprochen.
Ich wollte zum Ausdruck bringen, dass Deutschland auch wichtigere Sorgen als Griechenland hat.
During yesterday's sleepy markets, I highlighted in this tweet the rally in bund futures (rising prices, falling yields) may signal similar price action at the subsequent session, when US bond yields/prices return from Memorial Day Weekend. Today's bond price action did not disappoint, as the homogenous asset class moved in concert, delivering gap ups in prices and falling yields. This was a desperately needed development for yen bulls (particularly USDJPY shorts). Interpret what you wish from the chart below as to which is the dependent and independent variable (USDJPY or yield spread). Who leads whom? Shorting USDJPY has been the "pain trade" for our WhatsApp Broadcast Group, as we await Wednesday's debt ceiling vote and the JOLTs survey. Hanging in there.
Ashraf
Greece 32,8 %
Italy 31,4 %
Spain 30,1 %
ireland 27, 3 %
Germany 5,8 %
http://fbkfinanzwirtschaft.files.wordpress.com/2010/03/bw-march-1_2010-merkel-germany-vs-europe.pdf
these figures reflect also, which nations are waiting in the queue next to be "supported" or "aided" or
"honoured" for their inabilties
How shall the Greek pay the debts ? you already made critical marks about that, I know
so Greek CDS will be not the solution, but the prolongation of the crisis:
cheap money was the decisive harmful Katalysator for the subprime crisis and will it be now again.
For these reasons I d`ont belief Germany can afford so much to bailout Greece
If this is presumably so, Greek will also destabilze confidence in the Euro anyway with or without aid.
Germany or the EU can help temporarily but not change greek structures and manners (behaviours)
Sie wissen doch selber am besten Bescheid ber die derzeitige Stimmung in Deutschland; der aufmacherische Film "die Grenze" und Umfragen enthalten zumindets ein Krnchen Wahrheit
Mit der Piefek Saga oder Seitenhieben auf sterreich allerdings nicht vergleichbar
Aber im Ernst: Meine Bemerkung betraf die Frage, ob Deutschland Griechenland helfen wird, davon war ich nicht berzeugt und Finanzminister Schuble hat dies kurz nach meinem Beitrag auh deutlich besttigt und von gezielter Fehlinformation gesprochen.
Ich wollte zum Ausdruck bringen, dass Deutschland auch wichtigere Sorgen als Griechenland hat.
Schuble yesterday spoke about deliberate false informations for speculators
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7bab9d7e-3128-11df-8e6f-00144feabdc0.html