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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 19, 2010 15:19
Comments: 147
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Euro's Dead Cross

EURUSD's downtrend is now confirmed after its 50-day MA has fallen below its 100-day MA, strengthening the bearish technical signal with an already deteriorating fundamental foundation.
 
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Jan 27, 2010 16:54
rkkashmir, thats a tough question. i like both USDCAD and GBPCAD but with my generally bearish stance in GBPUSD, ill say USDCAD will sustain itself. But you can use gbpcad to hedge short cable. still see room for 1.735

Ashraf
Edric Ou
Singapore
Posts: 21
14 years ago
Jan 27, 2010 14:28
speaking of Euro dead cross, did anyone notice the converging macds in USDCAD daily chart with all of them looking for a ride up... anyone here says its a good time to go long after breaking of the impt trendline at 1.054 that Ashraf has mentioned in his twitter?
rkkashmir
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 26, 2010 18:26
Ashrsaf-is GBP/CAD a "higher percentage" long than USD/CAD?
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
14 years ago
Jan 26, 2010 18:06
Thanks Ashraf, and I apologize for missing that.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Jan 26, 2010 18:00
Rob, this is what is aid about FOMC yesterday in this forum so i am REPASTING IT (from yesterdays post)


The FOMC announcement will likely issue a modest upgrade of economic conditions in its wording but will maintain its low interest rate mantra of exceptionally low levels for an extended period. FOMC officials are well aware that any cogent signals to an exit strategy would be interpreted negatively by a market that is already growing nervous ahead of stepped up of Chinese tightening conditions. Market anticipation of a possible +5% handle in US GDP will likely maintain USD bulls on their yield differential foundation. I do not expect FX traders to show the same reflexive selling to the FOMCs reiteration of the low rates outlook due to heightened uncertainty from the regulatory/political front as the response in global equities.

ENGLISH TRANSLATION: USD could slip off before rebounding later on


Chloe, yes, i still see 1.06 support due to that trend line break but limit is at 1.0730 (on safe side)

for those who did not get in GBPCAD last night it rallied 90 pips, consider fresh longs at these levels 1.7140 to 1.72

IMT UPDATED

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
14 years ago
Jan 26, 2010 17:12
Also...well, actually I may as well wait to see what you write about the FOMC. But my thoughts are, with all the flack Bernanke's getting, it may just be time to drop the "extended period of time" statement...perhaps another nice bounce for the dollar?
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Jan 26, 2010 16:55
hi ashraf,i closed out all long usdcad position,but was wondering what you thought about getting back in after the 90pip drop to 1.0600..?i see you mentioned 1.-600 should be supported,but would like to hear what you think the upside for the usdcad could be (maybe 1.0750)..thanks for your help
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
14 years ago
Jan 26, 2010 16:49
Hi Ashraf,

How much do you see the cut to Japan's debt rating outlook affecting JPY? I know you are bullish on the Yen, esp. against AUD. Just read it from here ---http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aIZE2XLgmsJQ Thanks!
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Jan 26, 2010 15:07
simao, i said many times that i dont like to sell CHF. better buy USD better do it against GBP EUR CAD etccc. if you are already long at 1.0429, id get out at 1.047-80. good luck

Ashraf
simao
casablanca, Morocco
Posts: 51
14 years ago
Jan 26, 2010 13:51
hello ashraf and thnx for all your analyst, i short euro from 1.4070 and i am waiting at 3900, but i need to ask you about USD/CHF buying from 1.0425 what is the good and save target for this cross ? and thnx ashraf

mohamed