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Euro's Dead Cross
EURUSD's downtrend is now confirmed after its 50-day MA has fallen below its 100-day MA, strengthening the bearish technical signal with an already deteriorating fundamental foundation.
What are the "Dead Cross" numers (signals) for the GBP/USD pair?
Alternatively expressed could be "Short down to 1.38/39" then go long ..." (for anyone not already long and whose account doesn't allow them to hedge... :)
Long term I'm personally bullish Euro, bearish USD, but short term seems different.
I suspect you are right about what the US really wants. I suspect the UK really wants a weak GBP too. Race to the bottom... ;-) (What makes cable such "fun"...).
Ashraf
Do you think that we shall see another Dead Cross in other currencies such as USD/JPY?
(Also I wish you win the shortyaward :)
I already voted for you .
Shaker
Anyway for me this looks like the typical markets exaggeration and a good dip buying opportunity where you can scale in down to 1.38/39 for targets of 1.45-50.
I have cash only positions in the Euro - no leverage for now.
For a trading position, I would have shorted when net Euro short positions emergered and would have coverage last week when the short postions were cut in half.
200 MA breaks and dead cross are fine with me. Short term trading with 10x leverage would have double the positions in the last couple of months.
However, for me, short term trading results in a net loss over a long term. I rather prefer to follow a short term trend that is in the direction of long term fundamentals.
I mentinoed this earlier. US is improving and Eurozone is lagging by lets say few months.
A US economy growth along with EU is Euro positive and also a US slowdown and Euro zone growth is Euro positive.
Buying the Euro now is actually a great opportunity.
Greece loan will be addressed via IMF or might be a combination of Euro guarentees and ECB loan mechanism etc. This will show up in the next couple of weeks. For now, softening of the Euro is good for Germany and France and they would like to delay the Greek life line as long as they can.
The only negative I would consider for Greece would be the fall of the government and new elections. That would delay the cuts and IMF etc support resulting in more uncertainity for the Euro.
However, I give it max two weeks and the you will see the Greek CDSs going and the Euro recovering above 1.42.
any comments on the fundamentals fron your side would be greatly appreciates - as always
j
Jamsehd, where would you set your stop loss (or cut) from your eurusd longs?
Rob, as i said in IMT, if china GDP is well above 10% then mkts may be jittery on expctns that they would tighten. yes, bounce in risk appetite is inevitable but this eurusd downtrend is only starting (actually there was no real rebound as long as it failed 1.46)
cap on gold comes down to at 1130 eyeing 1110 then 1090. still eye 1070.
Ashraf