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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Jan 19, 2010 15:19
Comments: 147
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This thread was started in response to the Article:

Euro's Dead Cross

EURUSD's downtrend is now confirmed after its 50-day MA has fallen below its 100-day MA, strengthening the bearish technical signal with an already deteriorating fundamental foundation.
 
PippdOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 22, 2010 2:21
Euro's goosing is supported by the unwinding of the Goldman backed Cable Cartel's relentlesss offering of eur/gbp all last week.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 23:48
jnkwm, thats a very very broad answer. but in general, USD-stocks correlation was largely in mid to late 1990s ( much on this in my book) then it varied in 3-6 month cycles in early 2000s.


jjstone, much appreciated for that, But many people who have quick question on their position will come to forum and ask (wheres the euro going) after i dissected the thing all over the site.


Ashraf
jjstone
Toronto, Canada
Posts: 45
15 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 23:06
Ashraf

People usually ask you redundant questions, on information that you have given us on your man page. Often the same person asks you to reiterate what you have just said. I'm pretty sure they have read the main page and just want to interact with you. As you get more popular it will be unrealistic of you to keep up with the post's. I wish I had an solution, but their is none.

People

Let Ashraf concentrate on bringing us his strategies. If you see he just said something on the main page please don't ask him to repeat himself. If you don't read the main page, than read it. That is what its there for.

If you have something new and interesting to bring to are attention, then please enlighten us, that is the idea behind the forum.
jnwkm
United States
Posts: 2
15 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 22:49
great analysis on the VIX drop and the following pop up with the mkt taking a dive.

do you have any historical graphs or chart where the USD and the US equities changed the negative correlation to that of a positive correlation ? curious if that transiton was smooth or violent and the time required.

much thanks

keep up the great work.
asad
London, UK
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 21:37
Ashraf,

My heartiest wishes & congrats for successfully completing one year on this Forum. (I wanted to send you a card at CMC...but unfortunately, I had been away).

And what can I say that hasn't been said before you & this Forum...so I'll just say a simple 'thanks' (& the rest, ofcourse, you know...in what sight I hold you).

God Bless & keep the good work going... :)


Asad
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
15 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 19:57
FWIW, I'm still short EUR/USD (with large stops), but I agree about the daily candle. Have to be very careful. Also short cable, and I think there are similar-ish dangers here; daily candle maybe not so bullish...more like hald and half, but even so.

Rob
New York , United States
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 19:28
Thanks a lot Ashraf --- I appreciate your help immensely! Hopefully I'll get to see you at the Traders's Expo in NYC in Feb.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 19:23
Pipped, The DeadCross using 50&100 day MAs on $GBPUSD is not as significant as EURUSD because of the frequency of its occurences (more common than in EURUSD and therefore less valuable). But deadcross are NOT limited to 50 and 100, you can alsi use 5 and 15 or 20s..

In case of EURUSD howver, deadcross are rare and more useful.. just like Golden Cross in USDX.

Saka, the article was written 20 hrs before EURUSD fell 200 pts. not much money management was needed for that.

Rob, if i were to make money now id go for the usual CADJPy and AUDJPY as i said before today targetting 85.30 and 81 (from 81.90).. EURUSD candle looks a bit confusing so not sure how high the rebound (1.42 is limit) but i still see 1.4015 and 1.39


Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 18:52
Hey Ashraf,

Thanks so much for being "so quick on the draw" with your tweets! What would you say this means for EUR/USD? too soon to tell? Shoring up the risk on the banking system should be US economy positive by preventing blow-ups like the one we're in...traders don't see it that way though? Thoughts on EUR/USD would be appreciated. Thanks
Saka
China
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 21, 2010 17:32
Great analysis

But after some years' trading, I thought that making right decition is just half of your success. The ohter one is money management, if you use lots of position, a little pips would give you lots of profit or lose.

So what I need to do is to find high probablitly trend with proper position to let my equity increase, isn't it?