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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 23:09
i will pass u the transmission box.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 22:54
ignore
u r good. but i am gonna repeat u something like i listen or maybe u also. there are two options or u r very very very very close to me or someone sticked a chip lays in your hand
but u are the best caller.
Ignore
Jamaica
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 22:03
@Ashraf: "Why can't people have discussions without attacking each other?"

really Ashraf..you are surprised to learn that they can not in a chat room?

but keep hoping...

gl bro

said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 20:04
what do u think ashraf you and your little guy with its caban who thinks its him that decides the relation of your cci guy.
i am blind i have an impairment vision. i have been rounding this fucked up world for 12 years without a word in silence and you think u people overthere because of a coffee trading house relations i am gonna let you do with impunity what u want with me.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 19:53
eh ashraf
the given is count on the top of the picture.
ok ashraf, lets say undp workshop in damansara had large implications.

tahla fi rasec khoudouria
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 19:18
Careful with done deals ... yes target of next week is 1,38 but one should expect high volatility
in USDX thus 200 pip downmove is no surprise this could well occur before China new year and
given China cash crunch which is a fact
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 18:54
Callum, the weekly technicals suggest 1.37 is a given and 1.38. Got to see the weekly and monthly close to have an idea about the possibility 1.27 in H1

Why can't people have discussions without attacking each other? You can attack someone's thinking but not the person. A few people make money for few days and their ego entitles them to name-calling.

Ashraf
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 18:37
Callum,
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 18:18
usikpa
theory first: a system trader assumes the market is rational thus every market move can be explained by a rational model. This is the systems theoretic approach which yields market structure and forecast structure dynamics and hence price moves.
This model is consistent but incomplete because it has no rational explanation of "psychology".

The chart or technical trader has a complete model - all influences are depticted in price moves - but has no idea of influences and doesn't want to have. His model is complete but inconsistent he bets on "psychology".

This said I asked a question: is it possible the US treasury does never pay back debt does not pay interest and yet does not default AND increases the value of USD CASH (!) ?

YES!

How can one sell a product - actually an intellectual product - which no one needs with tremendous success? Well by controlling psychology.

So I analyzed how can it be done - USD cash value skyrockets , although USA doesn't pay interest and doesn't serve debt.
Of course the rest of the world goes belly up but why should the USA care?
USA is fully autarchic the may lack some oil but have plenty of nat gas uranium...and a broad technology base.
Thus the solution is deflation and global depression. That won't harm USA but it kills China.
And Russia, too. Consider the big brain drain under Yeltzin and Czar Putin reign. It can be compared in magnitude and effect to Hitler's expulsion of jewish scientists from Nazi germany.

Ok I do not explain how it will be done , but it will.




usikpa
Russia
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Jan 22, 2011 15:14
Wow, what a flame!

Why such a change, Catnip?

With all the charts set aside, could you kindly shed some fundamental light to unveil your reasoning behind the EURUSD going all the way to 1.50 and how that is supported by the PBOC that is jacking up rates and pulling cash out of the system to arrest surging inflation on the Mainland?

Indeed, we all know that over the last couple of weeks:

- European officials did finally manage to touch some ground with the PBOC to support further European periphery funding, at least in the beginning of the year

- The public mechanism of raising funds, which is auctions, has been scrambled. Its all done "privately" now. Apparently, with success

- The interest rate expectations in Germany, I take it, have swung, with the 2 year bunds selling off just HUGE (and elevated CPI and Ifo levels coming in handy), with the rest of the world pretty much tightening already

- Mr. Hu was visiting the US, and we all know that when that happens, the RMB suddenly appreciates, which is usually supportive of Euro

- Huge squeeze of record Euro short positions opened by January 10th


Isn't that already enough?

One can not help but notice, the EURUSD run up would be very much like the one we had in the end of 2008, if it wasn't for the opposing forces of emerging equity weakness and China being "difficult to analyze now" (in D. Tepper words).

But let's not forget we had two pretty much disappointing US employment reports in the row. What will happen to the USD on February 4?