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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Forum Topic:

JPY

Discuss JPY
 
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FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 10:33
Hello once again @ said. Long time. In my view the 1980's was the key decade of transition. The end of the cold war coincided with the opening up of financial markets in the west and easy and fast-moving capital. The frequency of crises has also increased during this time - no coincidence. In historical terms a generation is viewed as 30 years ... Just long enough to forget the lessons of the past.
said
mulhouse, France
Posts: 2822
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 10:20
frankbrit

the end of the 1970S saw a shift in the usa military strategy and doctrine.
u might be right about this thirty years
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 9:16
Maybe the U.S. is using Japan's trade/export paranoia + pro-U.S. PM Kan to fight its currency battles v. China AND prop up UST demand (as catnip mentioned). As the Chinese aren't buying as many UST then the U.S. just gets the Japanese to buy them. With friends like that ...
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 9:04
Another thought: China and Japan clearly see each other as export rivals so that if China is being pushed to allow the RNB to strengthen then they will naturally want the Yen to strengthen too in order to ensure they keep their relative price competitiveness with Japan. Face-off.
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 8:57
Everyone accepts (even the Japanese) that intervention will not really work. So if the issue is Chinese buying of JGB then by intervening and making the JPY "better value" this should surely encourage China to buy more? If then the whole intervention thing seems like Japan p***ing into the wind.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 8:48
If JPY buys USD and USD buys UST then no requirement for qe no USD devaluation and that is
good for China and Japan and US. Notice that the gold bulls are so far wrong gold spot stalls at best. I expect indeed some CHF buying but so far it doesn't happen.
bojan
Arizona , United States
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 8:29
Ashraf,

chinese are buying jgb and pushing jpy higher, than japanese had to intervene to stop jpy from rising, and buying dollars, isn't it exactly what china wants? somebody to buy usd? than it should leave us to buy chf, for the time being,? is the answer for future moves lie in chf/jpy ?


b.
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 7:20
I've not been following CHF much but it seems quite extended. At the end of the day the market will eventually feel that it's too expensive v. USD or whatever and sell it off. But there'll need to be more evidence of global 'normality' for that to happen.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 7:05
Well we are here to profit from two parties struggle. I made use of one opprtunity to profit, with T notes . But I still don't see what is behind the CHF.
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Sep 16, 2010 6:52
Pegs get broken if they are not built for the job. I thought the same yesterday but putting up a peg could be a red rag to a Yen bull. Remember that Ozawa - the PM loser - was anti-US. Kan - the winner - is appeasing the opposition (it was a tight vote in the land of harmony), the business community and the U.S. (buying UST and playing tag with Geithner v. China to pressure the Chinese to go 'free' market on the RNB). There'll be more sabre rattling to come which will likely only rattle the market strengthen JPY. So Japan seems to be playing with fire.
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