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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 1558
Forum Topic:

JPY

Discuss JPY
 
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ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Sep 15, 2010 21:22
You may be right about the timing. And yes, Im scratching my head ;)
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Sep 15, 2010 21:02
I agree but I think the timing was quite good. Letting the markets know before a possible easing by the FED that they are not just jawboning. AUD last night was looking rather weak v. JPY considering the strength v. the USD and by intervening they have managed to muddy the technical waters a bit and leave us all scratching our head for a few days. However, I agree that the whole exercise seems futile and could even be counter productive as with CHF.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
14 years ago
Sep 15, 2010 20:56
From my earlier tweet

@alaidi: OFFICIAL FIGS: Japan sold more than yen 2 trln in London & NY mkts on Wednesday -- Nikkei $$ $USDJPY #forex $$

Jpns govt telling Nikkei to warn mkts abt future intervention. $AUDJPY 55-week MA just above 80.80s double top from June ...

basically Govt mouthpiece tries to keep the makt away from buying yen..but FX traders arent easily pushed away especially when they see value in doing so

Ashraf
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Sep 15, 2010 20:51
@FrankBrit: Same here. I'd bet that it is ONLY a political gesture. Ozawa lost the vote so the pro-intervention chances waned. The strong yen became political issue, has been used as a tool in the political battle. Considering the japanese sense of honor I'd not be surprised by anything. Moreover, they intervened at the least appropriate time. The dollar got crushed just a few hours before the intervention and the renewed QE rumors... Insane, illogical and desperate from my point of view.
FrankBrit
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Posts: 73
14 years ago
Sep 15, 2010 20:40
If the figures are right (2 trillion JPY fired off today and maybe 28 trillion more still in the magazine) then they have quite a bit of ammo left. The problem for them seems mainly the JPY strength v. the USD not so much other currencies. If there is another sell off and markets buy JPY then they will only have succeeded in making the JPY cheaper and more will then buy it .. crazy. I think the value is mainly as a political gesture.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 15, 2010 20:29
Yes... what i see here T Notes ...they buy USD and with USD they buy UST
anyway as for EURJPY this year's top was about 134 and today is 111 about 400 pip
how much ammunition does BoJ have to get back to a comfortable relation or how much debt can BoJ raise?
Maybe the intervene again if needed but I think PIMCO is correct the effect will be short lived.
Basically the next UST auctions will go well
Gunjack
London, UK
Posts: 1184
14 years ago
Sep 15, 2010 20:25
@Ashraf totally agree with your point about philly index and mkts forcing the FOMCs hand....Anyone who follows the SPX has noticed that we have had 3 doji candles in the last week or so...this mkt is compressing to the point where it will explode one way or another...IMHO FED will not laucnh QE2 as mkts expect and we will see a big selloff in equities and commodities
ptaczek
Brno, Czech Republic
Posts: 110
14 years ago
Sep 15, 2010 20:25
Never underestimate a politician. I don't know whether they wanted to stabilize the currency but to me it smells like someone's ego aka honor is in play in Japan...
FrankBrit
Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 15, 2010 20:10
Reuters reported this morning that Japan stood ready to give a second dose during Tokyo trading if need be. But it might be rather dumb to fire more ammo when the market is hunkered down in the trench already. It's Kan showing that though he's not pro-interventionist he will take a stand and he does listen to Japanese business. Having jawboned for so long they wanted to show they had teeth too.
catnip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posted Anonymously
14 years ago
Sep 15, 2010 20:00
ashraf
I am only unsure what if Philly Fed is negative but somewhat LESS negative?
However I am unaware of a warning of Jap Min of Finance?
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